triathematician After his "A More Perfect Union" speech, will Obama's polling numbers increase? (measured by Gallup daily polling)
After deliberating settlement with Nigel the market has been settled as "No." This is because the average comes up as 0.
Background:
The market will be settled based on the average difference between Obama and Clinton in the Gallup daily poll in the seven days prior to the speech, vs. the seven days after the speech.
The results for the seven days prior are:
3/18: Clinton 49/Obama 42
3/17: Clinton 47/Obama 44
3/16: Clinton 47/Obama 45
3/15: Obama 48/Clinton 45
3/14: Obama 49/Clinton 46
3/13: Obama 50/Clinton 44
3/12: Obama 48/Clinton 46
On average, Obama lead by 0.29.
The question will be settled as YES or NO based on whether the average of (Obama [minus] Clinton) for the dates 3/19-3/25 is greater than or less than 0.29.
Settlement details:
As reported at Gallup, http://www.gallup.com/tag/Gallup%2bDaily.aspx
Settled
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Yes |
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No |
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Suspend date: Wed 26th Mar 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 28th Mar 1:06pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 26th Mar 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
triathematician 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Average is 0, should be settled as NO 
trevorbradley: http://www.gallup.com/poll/105706/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-Clinton-46.aspx
Looks like a No by my math... :(
orlin: Average is 0, which is less than 0.29 and answer is NO. 
tertius: The Gallup poll numbers are posted on the site listed in the description and comments. It is simply a math question. 
ryanj: After deliberating settlement with Nigel the market has been settled as "No." This is because the average comes up as 0.
Suspend date: Wed 26th Mar 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Fri 28th Mar 1:06pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 26th Mar 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (208)
208 predictions
bout3fitty
roxanaComments (26)
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We have been so starved for so long of intelligent, meaningful, political debate and discussion- this has been an amazing time! Great question.
3/20 poll: Clinton 47/Obama 45
3/19 poll: Clinton 48/Obama 43
See also http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Barack_Obama_retake_the_lead_in_the_Gallup_daily_poll_between_Clinton_and_Obama_and_when_4534/view
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
There was not a poll taken on Easter Sunday, March 23rd, which likely skews the averages.
"The question will be settled as YES or NO based on whether the average of (Obama [minus] Clinton) for the dates 3/19-3/25 is greater than or less than 0.29."
The date of the speech was included in "before" because I assumed that it did not make a difference in that day's polls (indeed, that was the day of Clinton's biggest margin).
It is certainly possible that the missing date will change the outcome (particularly if Obama is up by 1 or 2 tomorrow), but it seems the market has already shifted to account for this.
"The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking now shows Barack Obama with a 2-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. Neither candidate has captured a double-digit lead over the other since early February, when Clinton led Obama by 11 points."
Interesting video here by the Editor In Chief of the Gallup Poll:
<http://www.gallup.com/video/105655/Elusive-National-Lead.aspx>
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Clinton-Remain-Nearly-Tied.aspx
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105706/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-Clinton-46.aspx
My math has that working out at 0 exactly and a No, but it's real early and my brain isn't on yet...
Right now I'm deliberating with Nigel on how this will be settled. The market background contradicts itself with including 3/19 and not including 3/19. So please bare with us and when the decision is made you will be the first to know.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
Thanks for the update!
Everybody seems to have an opinion about "the speech". Obama received praise from Mike Huckabee and even from Hillary Clinton for the speech,
Now the comment is made, "the speech was likely not seen/heard of by those being polled."
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