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Created Tue 12th Feb 2008 2:20pm PST by dan_the_omniscient

Assuming Kosovo declares independence in February 2008, in which week will it happen?

Background: All aspects based on local time (gmt+1).
Question to be voided should Kosovo not declare independence in February 2008.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
All aspects based on local time (gmt+1).
Question to be voided should Kosovo not declare independence in February 2008.

 
Forecast history %
10th - 16th
0%
17th - 23rd
98%
24th - 29th
1%
Settled as 17th - 23rd on Sun 17th Feb 2008 9:20am PST

Suspend date: Fri 29th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 17th Feb 2008 9:20am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 17th Feb 2008 7:45am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 10th - 16th: 20%, 17th - 23rd: 50%, 24th - 29th: 30%

Action history:

Created Tue 12th Feb 2008 2:20pm PST by dan_the_omniscient
Edited Wed 13th Feb 2008 6:39am PST by ryanj
Settlement requested Sun 17th Feb 2008 8:25am PST by aidoru: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/02/17/kosovo.independence/index.html
Settled as '17th - 23rd' Sun 17th Feb 2008 9:20am PST by ryanj: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/02/17/kosovo.independence/index.html

Suspend date: Fri 29th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 17th Feb 2008 9:20am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 17th Feb 2008 7:45am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (51)

1 year ago
vincennes predicted 17th - 23rd (H$100 at 99%)
1 year ago
tickle_me_economy predicted 24th - 29th (H$200 at 6%)
1 year ago
andechs predicted 24th - 29th (H$20 at 3%)
1 year ago
soproudlywehail predicted 17th - 23rd (H$100 at 90%)
1 year ago
ladylara predicted 17th - 23rd (H$100 at 89%)

Comments (8)

  1 dan_the_omniscient
admins/moderators: plz take the time to read the question AND specific settlement details before getting happy with ur void button.
posted 1 year ago
  2 dan_the_omniscient
oops! settlement details went to background info. will an admin/moderator plz fix?
posted 1 year ago
  3 ryanj
I don't know Dan that void button looks so tempting...
Fixed it. Anything else just drop me an email.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
  4 ryanj
I'm going to keep the settlement info in the background so users, can understand what they are submitting themselves to.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 1 year ago
  5 dan_the_omniscient
very good. thx!
posted 1 year ago
  6 theonecalledmichael
What if they don't? does everyone lose?
posted 1 year ago
  7 lesley[Admin]
If the condition isn't met, i.e. they don't declare their independence by the end of the month, then the question will be voided. And everyone gets their stakes back.
posted 1 year ago
  8 dan_the_omniscient
as stated in the background info:
"All aspects based on local time (gmt+1).
Question to be voided should Kosovo not declare independence in February 2008."
posted 1 year ago

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