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My Predictions

At the end of March, which will be ranked higher: Google or Yahoo! (New and Improved!!)

Settled as Yahoo

http://siteanalytics.compete.com/yahoo.com+google.com/?metric=uv

Background:

The same question for the month of February drew H$260,860 of bets, and the end was close.Yahoo dropped by 2.1%, Google gained 0.1% ,it was settled as Yahoo! and I lost loads of money. What will be the rank at the end of March?

http://siteanalytics.compete.com/yahoo.com+google.com/?metric=uv

On comments from the voided question http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/At_the_end_of_March_which_will_be_ranked_higher_Google_or_Yahoo_3793/view
Really nice market but the starting values are out. Yahoo is ahead in every month in the past 12 months. Estimate should be at least 80% Yahoo, 20% Google and no draw option.
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yahoo
66%
Google
34%
Activity: H$64,565
Settled as Yahoo on Fri 4th Apr 8:19pm PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://siteanalytics.compete.com/yahoo.com+google.com/?metric=uv

Suspend date: Sat 5th Apr 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Fri 4th Apr 8:19pm PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Apr 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yahoo: 85%, Google: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 7th Mar 4:54am PST by rohan
Settlement requested Thu 3rd Apr 11:52am PDT by stephen: it had passed March
and yahoo has clearly won
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://siteanalytics.compete.com/yahoo.com+google.com/?metric=uv... read all

 

Predictions (168)

168 predictions

27 weeks ago
boydtl predicted Google (H$50 at 11%)
27 weeks ago
jakob predicted Yahoo (H$100 at 79%)
27 weeks ago
jakob predicted Google (H$15 at 21%)
27 weeks ago
narcizo predicted Google (H$20 at 20%)
27 weeks ago
renam predicted Google (H$20 at 20%)
more

Comments (9)

If last month's trend continues, it's Google. Go Google!
posted 31 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Great, so what happens now if there is a draw? Another big month for Yahoo...
posted 31 weeks ago
  3 destry[Admin]
I feel obligated to wager 1000 everytime yahoo gets to 40%. Worked last month lets hope it works again.
posted 31 weeks ago
  4 rohan
I'm betting on Google.
posted 30 weeks ago
  5 destry[Admin]
So I got 16k in this market which is 38k. Feels like I might be overexposed on this question.
posted 30 weeks ago
  6 rohan
BZZT. Yahoo loses.

posted 28 weeks ago
  7 rohan
See this years Google April Fools Day prank:http://www.google.com/virgle/index.html
posted 28 weeks ago
  8 shadowfax
here is another prank google has pulled for the day, sure appears real!

http://mail.google.com/mail/help/customtime/index.html
posted 28 weeks ago
looks like google might win in April to me, but not March.
posted 27 weeks ago

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