Barack Obama's next stated position, between 4/9-4/16 2008, regarding the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq? He supports:

well, are options 3 and 4 really necessary?

Also, what is "the job" defined aS? does he have to use these words?

Friend Markov, there is No history here...NEXT stated position implies that he has changed it before or often, maybe clarify a bit for us with a comment?

Would I be correct in saying, that in choice 2 (green): UNSPECIFIED TIMETABLE means that YOU (markov) are not specifying a particular timetable as being part of the answer, even though Obama could well specify an exact timetable in his "next stated position"? And that choice 1 (red) clearly specifies "within three months" as a part of this prediction choice answer?

So choice 1 (red) would be withdrawal in three months (90 days) or less; choice 2 (green) would be withdrawal in three months and one day or more (91 plus days); choice 3 is stay until the job is done; and choice 4 is "?" What possibilities would you envisage for choice 4? The troops are told to leave, or somehow become incapacitated and unable to fulfill their duties?

You have put together an interesting question: tell us more...

yes, i like the question, just wish there were either more choices, or more clearly defined choices...

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/

You don't change horses in midstream and Barack will NOT change his policy on Iraq before the election.

Any odds other than 99% for #2 seem way off to me.

yes, great question. hope to see it re-incarnated. :)

Good questions all. I tried to cover all possibilities and had a sneaking feeling I did not when I pushed the publish button. The reason for the question is that it is believed by some that Obama may be in the process of or on the verge of making some subtle shifts in his withdrawal position. Obviously, this would be of some interest to many. I was about to ask our diligent Admin to void the question so it could be worded more carefully whn he beat me to the punch. Thanks Admin (Ryan?)!

If anybody has any airtight outcomes to suggest I will be happy to repost a better version of the question. Thanks in advance.

Just trying to brainstorm here.. What about "Will Barack Obama change his Iraq position w/i the next x-y timeperiod?" Then list several significant bullet points from his above referenced website. If he actually does shift his policy, I'm certain reporters will be all over it -- and he will likely update his webpage so we can look for differences. I don't think we'll have a hard time differentiating a change. (My votes still on no change, but I'm willing to listen to other opinions)

@markov -- I don't have any suggestions :-(
but props for attempting to create an interesting market.

At your service Markov!

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

It seems all of the politicians are so technically ambiguous even when they sound like they are being very specific I'm having a hard time coming up with bulletproof outcomes to this.