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By 2010, the US will have agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by:

Current forecast: < 25% (48% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is < 25% with a probability of 48% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Climate change is one of the major political issues of our time. Will the US finally agree to carbon caps?


Settlement details: As reported by the New York Times.

 
Forecast history, %
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< 25%
48%
25 - 40%
47%
> 40%
5%
Activity: H$2,877
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Sat 2nd Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: < 25%: 35%, 25 - 40%: 60%, > 40%: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Jan 9:53pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Tue 11th Mar 6:27am PDT by ryanj[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 2nd Jan 2010 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (18)

18 predictions

2 days ago
storekeeperathscm predicted < 25% (H$20 at 48%)
2 weeks ago
peddi predicted > 40% (H$20 at 5%)
17 weeks ago
freedenboy predicted < 25% (H$20 at 49%)
17 weeks ago
testing predicted < 25% (H$100 at 48%)
18 weeks ago
kgholderman predicted < 25% (H$20 at 47%)
more

Comments (1)

USA agrees to all sorts of things...Problem is whether or not they DO them.
posted 1 week ago

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