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By 2017, how much of US transport fuel will be biofuel?
Current forecast: Less than 10% (60% chance
1%)
1%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Less than 10% with a probability of 60% (up 1% in last 1 day)
Here's one opinion:
Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help.
Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline.
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Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help.
Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline.
Share Print View Comments Like this story? Get Alerts of big news events. Enter your email address
Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help.
Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline.
Read full story here.
Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help.
Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline.
Share Print View Comments Like this story? Get Alerts of big news events. Enter your email address
Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help.
Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline.
Share Print View Comments Like this story? Get Alerts of big news events. Enter your email address
Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help.
Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline.
Read full story here.
Settlement details:
As reported by the New York Times, Reuters or Times
Make your prediction!
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Less than 10% |
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10-20% |
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More than 20% |
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Activity: H$1,322
Question suspends in 7 years
Suspend date: Sun 1st Jan 2017 11:59pm PST (7 years to go)
Initial likelihoods: Less than 10%: 40%, 10-20%: 40%, More than 20%: 20%
Action history:
lesley
Changed Description Tue 11th Nov 2008 8:45pm PST by 
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: show details
tisha: show details ... Here's one opinion: <br/> Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help. <br/> <br/> Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline. <br/> <br/> <br/> Share Print View Comments Like this story? Get Alerts of big news events. Enter your email address <br/> <br/> Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help. <br/> <br/> Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline. <br/> <br/> <br/> Share Print View Comments Like this story? Get Alerts of big news events. Enter your email address <br/> <br/> Once held up as the future of alternative energy, and our key to independence from fossil fuels, it is remarkable to see just how much (and fast) the tide has turned against biofuels. Rightly blamed for everything from rising food and commodity prices to water degradation and soil erosion, biofuels have seen their cachet plummet in recent months -- even among some of their most ardent boosters -- and are now widely considered to be little more than a boondoggle for farmers. The leaking of an internal World Bank report claiming that biofuels have driven up food prices by a whopping 75% certainly didn't help. <br/> <br/> Of course, it was always foolish to think that so-called first generation biofuels like corn ethanol would do much to alleviate our energy woes. Even now, flex-fuel vehicles only account for an infinitesimal proportion of the American car market -- at most a few million out of more than 130 million registered vehicles. And there are still so few gas stations that dispense E85 fuel (85% ethanol, 15% gas) that most drivers are forced to fill up with regular gasoline. <br/> <br/> Read full story <a href='http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeremy-jacquot/end-of-the-line-for-biofu_b_111152.html'>here</a>.
Suspend date: Sun 1st Jan 2017 11:59pm PST (7 years to go)
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Get widget!Predictions (20)
20 predictions
fish
predicted 10-20% (H$20 at 28%)
vannan
predicted 10-20% (H$50 at 26%)
predicted 10-20% (H$100 at 37%)
predicted More than 20% (H$100 at 24%)
predicted More than 20% (H$100 at 22%)Comments (3)
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score: 10
Forbes.com 1 day ago
in other policy areas, the incoming Obama administration may not have much choice but to be radical in energy policy and climate change because existing policies are running up against their natural limits: (1) The cyclical downturn has slashed oil
score: 10
Forbes.com 1 day ago
worldwide such as Abengoa Bioenergy Corporation, Acucar Guarani S/A, AltraBiofuels, Ancom Berhad, Archer Daniels Midland Co., Aventine Renewable Energy, Inc., Cargill, Inc., Chief Ethanol Fuels, Inc., Copersucar, Cosan S/A Ind. e Comercio, Delta-T,
score: 10
The Hindu 2 days ago
Washington (IANS): Scientists see marine algae as the most promising bet for a green fuel that would help ease the dependence on fossil fuel and power vehicles of the future. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of Californa San Diego (UCSD),
score: 10
Businessweek 5 days ago
rose, prompting increased production, and dropped dramatically when oil prices fell. With the bankruptcy of leading distributor VeraSun Energy (VSE) two months ago, ADM has cemented its dubious position as industry titan. That dominance will probably
score: 10
US News 1 week ago
on ethanol isn't one of them. In the ongoing debate over the future of the country's energy policy, biofuels occupy a unique and precarious position: reviled in some quarters, championed in others. Ethanol producers have enjoyed meteoric rises in the
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