By March 20th how high will the reported death toll in Tibet be?

Ah, nothing like adding to the death tool.

needs to define if the death count will be 'reported' by either the Chinese authorities or Tibetan exiles. Either figure will be highly variable.

Yo people: The reported death toll is already 80; why are you betting on 41-60?

The death toll was greater than 80 at the time this question was posted. It should be voided.

I'm not necessarily against these types of questions, however I certainly hope this does not become a predominant theme here at hubdub.

mork: at the time this question was created, the death toll was estimated at 80 only by the exiled Tibetan goct; it was not confirmed by any major source. what this question is trying to ask is what will a major source report it as, not what the major source will report the govt as saying

The exiled Tibeten government and the Dalai Lama said it was more than 80.

The media has to get their source from somewhere.

What will be considered as the correct death toll number: The one the Chinese government pronounces, or the one the Tibetan exiles tell us? Take care, Tibetans may hyperbolize just as the Chinese officials will downsize it.
Now even the media isn't allowed to travel there anymore, so there could be a situation in which no objective source can report what is happening at all I fear.

yes, it's incredibly important which death toll we go with here, like to the tune of a factor of about 5 to 10. Can we sort this out? I'd like to make a bet.

You're absolutely right, there is an issue with whether we go with the Chinese-backed Tibetan government or the exiled Tibetan Government figures or hope vaguely for some objective independent body being able to gain access to the country.

The options seem to be:
- go with the "official" government figures
- go with the exiled government figures
- hope that the BBC reports a figure that they believe to be accurate, and if they continue to quote conflicting figures, void it on March 20th
- void it now

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this before a decision is made. I'm going to suspend the question for 24 hours, post it to www.getsatisfaction.com/hubdub and try to get a quick decision on this.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

Doesnt matter to me I bet on em all... just pick one :>

OK, this has been suspended for almost 24 hrs and there is still no consensus on the best way to settle it. (1 void now, 1 leave it to the BBC and then void, 1 it doesn't matter). I'm currently leaning towards re-opening and leaving it until after Thursday to see if any independent figures are released (chances are pretty slim, but you never know). I'll give it another hour or so if anyone else wants to comment.

Thanks

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

No more comments or opinions posted, so I'm going to reopen it and hope that the BBC report something they call accurate. It will likely have to be voided after March 20th as it doesn't look like any reporters will be allowed into Tibet.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

As per previous comments on this question, there is still no indendently verifiable figure given for the death toll in Tibet, therefore this question will have to be voided.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager