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DJIA Poker - Which best poker hand will be available from the April 25th close of the DJIA?

Settled as 2 Pair

12,891.86 two ones, two eights
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=INDU&sid=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI
http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582

Background:

The DJIA's closing value has 7 numbers. (e.g. April 24th close of 12,848.95).

Using the 7 available numbers of the closing value of the DJIA on April 25th, which best of the available choices in this market question will occur?

This is my first attempt at this type of question, and I am sure it can be perfected in some way.

Please read "Settlement Details".


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

The best available hand which matches one of the choices available in this market question, will be used to determine the outcome.

(Example: If the final closing value had two 4's and two 7's, then naturally two pair would win over one pair. 3 of a kind would win over any pair(s), Small straight would win over 3 of a kind, Large straight would win over small straight, and so on.) Use basic poker rules for the available choices, etc.

For the sake of this market question, a zero ("0") will be used in a straight only when used before the number one ("1"). (e.g. 0,1,2 but NOT 8,9,0).

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

1 Pair
15%
2 Pair
13%
3 of a Kind.
15%
Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).
5%
Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers).
24%
Large Straight. (4 consecutive numbers).
16%
Anything other than the six choices above.
12%
Activity: H$12,862
Settled as 2 Pair on Fri 25th Apr 2008 1:34pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT Settlement date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 1:34pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 1 Pair: 20%, 2 Pair: 14%, 3 of a Kind.: 14%, Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).: 14%, Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers).: 14%, Large Straight. (4 consecutive numbers).: 14%, Anything other than the six choices above.: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 24th Apr 2008 1:26pm PDT by hubdubbob
Suspended Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 25th Apr 2008 1:14pm PDT by kasulked: should be 2 pair it closed at 12891.86 http://www.cnbc.com/

Suspend date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT Settlement date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 1:34pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (93)

93 predictions

36 weeks ago
hubddubber predicted Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair). (H$20 at 5%)
36 weeks ago
obliverous predicted Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers). (H$100 at 23%)
36 weeks ago
stefo91 predicted Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers). (H$50 at 23%)
36 weeks ago
cakie174 predicted 3 of a Kind. (H$100 at 16%)
36 weeks ago
knowitall predicted 3 of a Kind. (H$50 at 14%)
more

Comments (32)

In poker, there are no small or large straights, just a straight...5 cards in a row, then there are also flushes, which are not possible on the dow...the odds would have to be different than here, more like the odds in poker, plus you have to allow for 4 of a kind, 5, 6, and 7 of a kind...
posted 36 weeks ago
love the question, very creative hubdubbob
posted 36 weeks ago
you could add 4 of a kind as another option next time, michael is right.
posted 36 weeks ago
  4 shadowfax
clever question here, thanks for creating.
posted 36 weeks ago
I LOVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I usually don't bet on the DJIA questions but I WILL bet on DJIA Poker!

Thanks Hubdubbob
posted 36 weeks ago
  6 mrperfkt[Admin]
Now if only we got 2 pocket cards before seeing the flop! :)
Very creative question! Only suggestion would be to maybe make the odds a little more realistic to getting a real poker hand. 1 or even 2 of a kind seems much more probable than a "large straight." But hey, maybe I'm bluffing... ;)

Either way, I'm pushing my ante in...
posted 36 weeks ago
  7 destry[Admin]
so if there were 5 consecutive numbers that would be the last choice? And shouldn't full house be higher than the straights. It seems this resembels yahtzee more than poker. I love the creativity here.
I think with a little editing this could be a great question. I am not opposed to ranking them like yahtzee hands, 1pr, 2pr, 3 of a kind, full house, small straight, large straight, four of a kind, and 5 of a kind(yahtzee), then the lowest would be chance or none of above.
posted 36 weeks ago
  8 bcguelph
Can we clarify the rank of the hands? Is a small straight higher than a full house???

I like the question, but a small straight is 4 in a row, and a large straight is 5 in a row.

A full house is far less likely than either straight - it needs to be ranked as a "higher" in future.
posted 36 weeks ago
I agree with destry. Ranking hands like yahtzee would seem to work out well.
A little fine tuning and hopefully this question will be asked regularly
posted 36 weeks ago
  10 dieseldog
i'm guessing hubdubbob is using regular poker rules. whats wrong with that? in the future if smobody does create the question using yahtzee rules that should be specified. he doesn't mention yahtzee so that shouldn't count on this particular question. if you wanna nic-pic you can say he doesn't have the answers in order (low to high or vice versa) according to standard poker rules. if your betting on poker you should know whats high and low.
posted 36 weeks ago
  11 bcguelph
So are we saying that a small straight beats a full house?
posted 36 weeks ago
A small straight (3 in a row) is much, much more likely to occur than three of a kind or a full house...
posted 36 weeks ago
  13 bcguelph
I agree, but I think that this question is structured in such a way that 3 in a row BEATS a full house. Makes no sense.
posted 36 weeks ago
  14 destry[Admin]
@dieseldog - I don't know when I pissed in your cheerios but I'll just say sorry and maybe you can stop the negativity on all my comments. He wasn't using poker rules when a straight beats a full house.
I like the creativity and was hoping to add what I thought were positive comments to the question. I noted that his rankings were based on yahtzee more than poker, so suggested that he could use either approach.
posted 36 weeks ago
  15 hubdubbob
Thank you all for your comments. The idea for this just kind of hit me suddenly, and I did spend a bit of time thinking things out, and knowing when I posted it that more could have been added, etc. Of course I didn't think about all of the things mentioned in your comments. Though it does somewhat resemble Yahtzee, that didn't even cross my mind when I was creating it, so am going only with regular poker rules here. If a given "hand" isn't mentioned in the available choices, then it would fall under "Anything other than the six choices above.". I know there are no small nor large straights in poker, but the idea for them entered my thought process, so I went with them. The available choices are not necessarily listed in order of one being a better one than the one below it, etc. Regular poker rules apply for the available choices. A Yahtzee slant on this is a good idea too. Another idea would be where all 7 numbers in the closing value were added together. I guess there are several alternatives. Though it can be improved upon, it does appear all of you are enjoying it, so that is good. BTW, I'd say if there happens to be 5 consecutive numbers, then it us just a large straight with a wasted number, but I will add 5 consecutive numbers in the future. Again, thank you for your input.
posted 36 weeks ago
  16 dieseldog
@destry..how was i being negative towards you? where does he say a straight beats a full house? the settlement details says in part Use basic poker rules for the available choices, etc. i'll say AGAIN if somebody wants to nic-pic you can say he doesn't have the answers in order (low to high or vice versa) according to standard poker rules. if you call that being negative then thats on you.
posted 36 weeks ago
  17 bcguelph
BOB - you have to at least clarify which of the listed options outranks the others. Does a small straight beat a full house etc. Otherwise, who would bet on this?
posted 36 weeks ago
Hubdub DJIA Poker!!!
posted 36 weeks ago
Full House beats Straight beats Trips beats 2-Pair beats Pair
posted 36 weeks ago
  20 bcguelph
LARGE straight wins it all , and all it takes is a 3 and a 4 since the 1 and 2 are pretty much assured.
posted 36 weeks ago
  21 hubdubbob
Okay, in increasing order of strength...

1 Pair
2 Pair
3 of a Kind
Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers).
Large Straight. (4 consecutive numbers).
Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).

Anything else will fall under "Anything other than the six choices above.".
posted 36 weeks ago
Thank you Hubdubbob!
posted 36 weeks ago
According to my calculations, the odds to win are:
pair 7.63%
2 pair 18.42%
3 of a kind 5.25%
small straight 35.39%
large straight 25.23%
full house 7.88%
other 0.22%

(Bob if you do this one again, you should readjust the initial odds a bit)
posted 36 weeks ago
  24 hubdubbob
Yeah, I'll try to come up with better starting odds. I wrote down the odds you provided as a starting point.
posted 36 weeks ago
  25 hubdubbob
Yeah, I'll try to come up with better starting odds. I wrote down the odds you provided as a starting point.
posted 36 weeks ago
  26 bcguelph
Jenni - those are accurate odd if all 7 numbers are random. In this case, the first two numbers are pretty much guaranteed to be a 1 and a 2 (or perhaps a one and a three or another one).

A straight is pretty likely when you already have a 1 and a 2!
posted 36 weeks ago
No, I wasn't assuming all #s were random. I just laid out all the possibilities between 12750 and 12950 and let Excel calcuate the winning "hand" for each.

I agree straights are pretty likely - about 60% of the time.
posted 36 weeks ago
  28 steph
12,777.96 at 1:20 PM EST

Triple 7s!

= )
posted 36 weeks ago
  29 hubdubbob
I've been thinking about using only the 5 numbers from right to left. What do you all think about that instead of using all 7 numbers?
posted 36 weeks ago
  30 steph
One pair wins it, right?

= )
posted 36 weeks ago
  31 kasulked
actually it looks like 2 pair 12891.86 but market is still settling out just a few seconds ago it looked like a large straight. As for bob's question I like the use of 7 numbers because there is more of a chance for different combo's
posted 36 weeks ago
5 numbers is better, but I've never heard of a straight in poker being less than 5 cards... why re-invent the wheel here? you don't even take into account 4 of a kind or five of a kind... I like the question, but the odds are quite a bit different from poker... maybe we should call this "the Dow Yahtzee Experiment" and forget about poker... of course, you have to take into account that there will definitely be a 1 for a long time, and a 2 for quite some time....
posted 36 weeks ago

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