DJIA Poker - Which best poker hand will be available from the April 25th close of the DJIA?
12,891.86 two ones, two eights
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=INDU&sid=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI
http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582
Background:>
Using the 7 available numbers of the closing value of the DJIA on April 25th, which best of the available choices in this market question will occur?
This is my first attempt at this type of question, and I am sure it can be perfected in some way.
Please read "Settlement Details".
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
The best available hand which matches one of the choices available in this market question, will be used to determine the outcome.
(Example: If the final closing value had two 4's and two 7's, then naturally two pair would win over one pair. 3 of a kind would win over any pair(s), Small straight would win over 3 of a kind, Large straight would win over small straight, and so on.) Use basic poker rules for the available choices, etc.
For the sake of this market question, a zero ("0") will be used in a straight only when used before the number one ("1"). (e.g. 0,1,2 but NOT 8,9,0).
Settled
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1 Pair |
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2 Pair |
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3 of a Kind. |
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Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair). |
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Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers). |
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Large Straight. (4 consecutive numbers). |
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Anything other than the six choices above. |
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Suspend date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT Settlement date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 1:34pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 1 Pair: 20%, 2 Pair: 14%, 3 of a Kind.: 14%, Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).: 14%, Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers).: 14%, Large Straight. (4 consecutive numbers).: 14%, Anything other than the six choices above.: 10%
Action history:
http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/quotes.aspx?symb=INDU&sid=
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EDJI
http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582
Suspend date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT Settlement date: Fri 25th Apr 2008 1:34pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 25th Apr 2008 11am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (93)
93 predictions
Comments (32)
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I usually don't bet on the DJIA questions but I WILL bet on DJIA Poker!
Thanks Hubdubbob
Very creative question! Only suggestion would be to maybe make the odds a little more realistic to getting a real poker hand. 1 or even 2 of a kind seems much more probable than a "large straight." But hey, maybe I'm bluffing... ;)
Either way, I'm pushing my ante in...
I think with a little editing this could be a great question. I am not opposed to ranking them like yahtzee hands, 1pr, 2pr, 3 of a kind, full house, small straight, large straight, four of a kind, and 5 of a kind(yahtzee), then the lowest would be chance or none of above.
I like the question, but a small straight is 4 in a row, and a large straight is 5 in a row.
A full house is far less likely than either straight - it needs to be ranked as a "higher" in future.
A little fine tuning and hopefully this question will be asked regularly
I like the creativity and was hoping to add what I thought were positive comments to the question. I noted that his rankings were based on yahtzee more than poker, so suggested that he could use either approach.
1 Pair
2 Pair
3 of a Kind
Small Straight. (3 consecutive numbers).
Large Straight. (4 consecutive numbers).
Full House. (3 of a Kind and a Pair).
Anything else will fall under "Anything other than the six choices above.".
pair 7.63%
2 pair 18.42%
3 of a kind 5.25%
small straight 35.39%
large straight 25.23%
full house 7.88%
other 0.22%
(Bob if you do this one again, you should readjust the initial odds a bit)
A straight is pretty likely when you already have a 1 and a 2!
I agree straights are pretty likely - about 60% of the time.
Triple 7s!
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