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Death pool: Who will die first?

Background: Hubdub does not allow markets relating to DEATH. This market was created before the rules were changed.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Fidel Castro
42%
Pope Benedict XVI
4%
Jimmy Carter
7%
Britney Spears
4%
Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens
13%
Queen Elizabeth II
7%
Lindsey Lohan
2%
Paris Hilton
2%
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
14%
George H.W. Bush
6%
Question suspends in 8 years

Suspend date: Sun 6th Jan 2019 3:59pm PST (8 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Fidel Castro: 27%, Pope Benedict XVI: 14%, Jimmy Carter: 8%, Britney Spears: 8%, Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens: 8%, Queen Elizabeth II: 8%, Lindsey Lohan: 4%, Paris Hilton: 3%, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia: 11%, George H.W. Bush: 9%

Action history:

Created Tue 4th Mar 2008 5:20am PST by phred
Edited Tue 11th Mar 2008 1:15am PST by diana
Changed Suspend date Wed 6th Jan 10:49am PST by destry[Admin]: was: ""
Suspended Tue 26th Jan 6:02pm PST by notablenotices[Power User]: Flagged by super user: Death pool
Unsuspended Wed 27th Jan 4:57am PST by sqlman[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 6th Jan 2019 3:59pm PST (8 years to go) details

 

Predictions (762)

1 day ago
jank predicted Fidel Castro (H$100 at 40%)
1 day ago
htlsales predicted Jimmy Carter (H$10 at 7%)
1 day ago
htlsales predicted George H.W. Bush (H$10 at 6%)
1 day ago
jank predicted Fidel Castro (H$100 at 38%)
1 day ago
jank predicted Pope Benedict XVI (H$100 at 6%)

Comments (17)

is this supposed to be a hard question? lol
posted 1 year ago
  2 myunion
If Castro dies you won't hear about it for months. Then the question will be settled when Honorable John Paul Stevens dies. Will it be re-opened and resettled when we find out Castro died months earlier?
posted 1 year ago
  3 bcguelph
no
posted 1 year ago
I'm thinking that's why a safer way of wording it would be something like "Who will be reported to have died first". That way the date when the event is *reported* is what settles the market, not the actual event, which as has been pointed out may not become immediately known. Just my 2 centavos.
posted 1 year ago
  5 ryfly
Why isn't Amy Winehouse on here? That's who get my vote. H$100
posted 1 year ago
  6 gadget666
just remember this is who we think will die first, not who we want to die first. if it was who we wanted to die, I would have money on paris, britney, amy , and any other famous for being a coked up slut nobody I could think of
posted 1 year ago
do you all know our destiny is written? when he comes, no one knows the hour. so god bless you, when he, jesus, comes.
posted 1 year ago
  8 firechild
I can see the headline now: "Paris Hilton murdered. Hubdub payout suspected motive."
posted 1 year ago
  9 pixelpaws
How about that Nigerian prince that keeps trying to send me money? If he's that desperate to get rid of it, then surely he's not going to live much longer.
posted 1 year ago
Amy Winehouse x2
posted 1 year ago
i thought these kinds of questions were banned?
posted 1 year ago
  12 dieseldog
this question was made before the new rules were added. they didn't make them retroactive.
posted 1 year ago
  13 tlwinslow
And why does hubdub void all my "death" questions, even statistical ones, when it keeps this one active? :)
posted 9 weeks ago
  14 kruijs[Power User]
maybe dieseldog's comment (the comment right in front of yours) explains that. but in case it doesn't, please tell me which part you do not understand.
posted 9 weeks ago
Haha there should be an "Other" option just to mess with people.
posted 7 weeks ago
What's the deal with this? Are we gonna get our money back?
posted 7 weeks ago
@sdrawkcabton88

I realized this was one of the "grandfathered" markets after I suspended it.
I flagged this to have the admin unsuspend.

They will unsuspend it soon, sorry for the inconvenience.
posted 7 weeks ago

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