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Death pool: Who will die first?

Current forecast: Fidel Castro (44% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Fidel Castro with a probability of 44% (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Fidel Castro
44%
Pope Benedict XVI
15%
Jimmy Carter
10%
Britney Spears
2%
Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens
12%
Queen Elizabeth II
6%
Lindsey Lohan
0%
Paris Hilton
1%
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
7%
George H.W. Bush
3%
Activity: H$29,552
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Fidel Castro: 27%, Pope Benedict XVI: 14%, Jimmy Carter: 8%, Britney Spears: 8%, Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens: 8%, Queen Elizabeth II: 8%, Lindsey Lohan: 4%, Paris Hilton: 3%, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia: 11%, George H.W. Bush: 9%

Action history:

Created Tue 4th Mar 2008 5:20am PST by phred
Edited Tue 11th Mar 2008 2:15am PDT by diana

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (305)

305 predictions

5 days ago
thepimp69 predicted Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens (H$133 at 11%)
2 weeks ago
jank predicted King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia (H$100 at 4%)
2 weeks ago
jank predicted Pope Benedict XVI (H$100 at 15%)
2 weeks ago
wandaoleary predicted Queen Elizabeth II (H$100 at 4%)
2 weeks ago
moltenmich predicted Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens (H$20 at 9%)
more

Comments (10)

is this supposed to be a hard question? lol
posted 37 weeks ago
  2 myunion
If Castro dies you won't hear about it for months. Then the question will be settled when Honorable John Paul Stevens dies. Will it be re-opened and resettled when we find out Castro died months earlier?
posted 35 weeks ago
  3 bcguelph
no
posted 35 weeks ago
I'm thinking that's why a safer way of wording it would be something like "Who will be reported to have died first". That way the date when the event is *reported* is what settles the market, not the actual event, which as has been pointed out may not become immediately known. Just my 2 centavos.
posted 27 weeks ago
  5 ryfly
Why isn't Amy Winehouse on here? That's who get my vote. H$100
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 gadget666
just remember this is who we think will die first, not who we want to die first. if it was who we wanted to die, I would have money on paris, britney, amy , and any other famous for being a coked up slut nobody I could think of
posted 21 weeks ago
do you all know our destiny is written? when he comes, no one knows the hour. so god bless you, when he, jesus, comes.
posted 10 weeks ago
  8 firechild
I can see the headline now: "Paris Hilton murdered. Hubdub payout suspected motive."
posted 9 weeks ago
  9 pixelpaws
How about that Nigerian prince that keeps trying to send me money? If he's that desperate to get rid of it, then surely he's not going to live much longer.
posted 8 weeks ago
Amy Winehouse x2
posted 8 weeks ago

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