Created Tue 4th Mar 2008 5:20am PST by

phred

Death pool: Who will die first?

Background:

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Fidel Castro

39%

Pope Benedict XVI

Jimmy Carter

Britney Spears

20%

Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens

Queen Elizabeth II

Lindsey Lohan

Paris Hilton

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia

11%

George H.W. Bush

Open question (no suspend date)

Activity: H$65,326
Predictions: 481
Comments: 12

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Fidel Castro: 27%, Pope Benedict XVI: 14%, Jimmy Carter: 8%, Britney Spears: 8%, Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens: 8%, Queen Elizabeth II: 8%, Lindsey Lohan: 4%, Paris Hilton: 3%, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia: 11%, George H.W. Bush: 9%

Action history:

Created Tue 4th Mar 2008 5:20am PST by

phred

Edited Tue 11th Mar 2008 1:15am PST by

diana

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Suspend date: None details

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Predictions (481)

15 hours ago

jank

predicted Fidel Castro (H$1,000 at 22%)

17 hours ago

jank

predicted George H.W. Bush (H$250 at 3%)

17 hours ago

jank

predicted King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia (H$500 at 4%)

17 hours ago

jank

predicted Queen Elizabeth II (H$500 at 5%)

17 hours ago

jank

predicted Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens (H$250 at 3%)

Comments (12)

gonzalezbr Level 10, Genius (H$10,400)

is this supposed to be a hard question? lol

posted 1 year ago

myunion Level 8, Super-Pro (H$6,470)

If Castro dies you won't hear about it for months. Then the question will be settled when Honorable John Paul Stevens dies. Will it be re-opened and resettled when we find out Castro died months earlier?

posted 1 year ago

bcguelph Level 15, Seer (H$275,429)

posted 1 year ago

raidersin09 Level 14, Prophet (H$111,291)

I'm thinking that's why a safer way of wording it would be something like "Who will be reported to have died first". That way the date when the event is *reported* is what settles the market, not the actual event, which as has been pointed out may not become immediately known. Just my 2 centavos.

posted 1 year ago

ryfly

Why isn't Amy Winehouse on here? That's who get my vote. H$100

posted 1 year ago

gadget666 Level 8, Super-Pro (H$5,235)

just remember this is who we think will die first, not who we want to die first. if it was who we wanted to die, I would have money on paris, britney, amy , and any other famous for being a coked up slut nobody I could think of

posted 1 year ago

lisaspurbeck Level 1, Newbie (H$932)

do you all know our destiny is written? when he comes, no one knows the hour. so god bless you, when he, jesus, comes.

posted 1 year ago

firechild Level 12, Guru (H$43,091)

I can see the headline now: "Paris Hilton murdered. Hubdub payout suspected motive."

posted 1 year ago

pixelpaws Level 13, Psychic (H$66,739)

How about that Nigerian prince that keeps trying to send me money? If he's that desperate to get rid of it, then surely he's not going to live much longer.

posted 1 year ago

carnacthemagnificent Level 14, Prophet (H$172,350)

Amy Winehouse x2

posted 1 year ago

dragonfangxl Level 7, Pro (H$3,919)

i thought these kinds of questions were banned?

posted 33 weeks ago

dieseldog Level 16, Oracle (H$584,350)

this question was made before the new rules were added. they didn't make them retroactive.

posted 33 weeks ago

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