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Death pool: Who will die first?

Current forecast: Fidel Castro (48% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Fidel Castro with a probability of 48% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
Forecast history, %
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Fidel Castro
48%
Pope Benedict XVI
11%
Jimmy Carter
10%
Britney Spears
1%
Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens
9%
Queen Elizabeth II
3%
Lindsey Lohan
8%
Paris Hilton
2%
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia
3%
George H.W. Bush
5%
Activity: H$21,029
Open question (no suspend date)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Fidel Castro: 27%, Pope Benedict XVI: 14%, Jimmy Carter: 8%, Britney Spears: 8%, Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens: 8%, Queen Elizabeth II: 8%, Lindsey Lohan: 4%, Paris Hilton: 3%, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia: 11%, George H.W. Bush: 9%

Action history:

Created Tue 4th Mar 5:20am PST by phred
Edited Tue 11th Mar 2:15am PDT by diana
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (203)

203 predictions

7 hours ago
thisson predicted George H.W. Bush (H$20 at 5%)
2 days ago
sonny predicted Fidel Castro (H$5 at 49%)
5 days ago
jimmsolo predicted Britney Spears (H$2 at 1%)
1 week ago
atrane predicted Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens (H$20 at 14%)
1 week ago
fullwindsor predicted Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens (H$50 at 12%)
more

Comments (6)

is this supposed to be a hard question? lol
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 myunion
If Castro dies you won't hear about it for months. Then the question will be settled when Honorable John Paul Stevens dies. Will it be re-opened and resettled when we find out Castro died months earlier?
posted 23 weeks ago
  3 bcguelph
no
posted 23 weeks ago
I'm thinking that's why a safer way of wording it would be something like "Who will be reported to have died first". That way the date when the event is *reported* is what settles the market, not the actual event, which as has been pointed out may not become immediately known. Just my 2 centavos.
posted 15 weeks ago
  5 ryfly
Why isn't Amy Winehouse on here? That's who get my vote. H$100
posted 14 weeks ago
  6 gadget666
just remember this is who we think will die first, not who we want to die first. if it was who we wanted to die, I would have money on paris, britney, amy , and any other famous for being a coked up slut nobody I could think of
posted 9 weeks ago

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