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During what month will the average cost of Regular Unleaded top $4/gallon?

Settled as June

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080608/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_at4_14


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. The market is regarding the US dollar.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Not This Year
0%
April
0%
May
0%
June
100%
July
0%
August
0%
Spetember
0%
October
0%
November
0%
December
0%
Activity: H$39,598
Settled as June on Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:53pm PDT

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:53pm PDT

Initial likelihoods: Not This Year: 3%, April: 7%, May: 10%, June: 10%, July: 15%, August: 15%, Spetember: 10%, October: 10%, November: 10%, December: 10%

Action history:

Created Mon 10th Mar 2008 7:18am PDT by epr118
Clarified Mon 10th Mar 2008 6:12pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: the market is regarding the US dollar.
Edited Mon 10th Mar 2008 6:12pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Sun 8th Jun 2008 7:13am PDT by gotmick: The correct answer is June:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Settled as 'June' Sun 8th Jun 2008 7:22am PDT by andrew: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
Previous action withdrawn Sun 8th Jun 2008 8:31am PDT by andrew: wrong type of gasoline
Settlement requested Sun 8th Jun 2008 6:06pm PDT by Erik: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080608/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_at4_14
Settled as 'June' Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:53pm PDT by andrew: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080608/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_at4_14

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Sun 8th Jun 2008 11:53pm PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (114)

114 predictions

30 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted June (H$1,000 at 82%)
30 weeks ago
johnd predicted July (H$50 at 13%)
30 weeks ago
supertrampas predicted June (H$100 at 87%)
30 weeks ago
thelol predicted June (H$100 at 86%)
30 weeks ago
spacemonkey1229 predicted July (H$100 at 11%)
more

Comments (13)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
This market is in regard to the US dollar I would imagine? Just putting in the clarification box, that the market is regarding the US dollar.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 43 weeks ago
  2 epr118
Yes, sorry, the question was meant to be in USD
posted 43 weeks ago
  3 randburg
This is the NATIONAL AVERAGE IN THE US, not just a limited high market e.g. California.
posted 42 weeks ago
Epr118, please clarify whether you meant the national average or Regular Unleaded. The average may reach $4. There's another market wagering on whether this will happen by July 4. But, I am certain that the U.S. government is under no obligation to claim that its measure is the same as "the average cost of Regular Unleaded". In fact, I'd be happy to share with you a photo later today of $3.59 at my corner grocery store. The average cost of gas is reported, officially, as $3.34.

If you want to know when we'll hit $4.00 for regular unleaded, then I am willing to upload a photo a week (suburban Maryland, USA, greater Washington, DC Metro area) of my cost. If you want a market on when the National average is reported as $4.00, that's quite another story. Either way, I'm in for H$100. But would appreciate clarification.
posted 38 weeks ago
PS: As Hawaii and California regularly exceed what I pay for gas, (but I exceed what my brother in Texas pays for gas), I am relatively confident that the $4 by July 4 market will be decided as Yes. But, this takes into account that Hawaii and California will have to significantly exceed the $4 mark to get a national average of $4. For this market, I think that the real prices and the "official" price are entirely unrelated to one another.
posted 38 weeks ago
  6 bayoubear[Admin]
The Energy Information Administration releases figures weekly on national average fuel costs, for different grades and also state by state...perhaps their statistics should be used to settle this question.....just a thought
posted 36 weeks ago
  8 epr118
So I am not sure who settled this, but if you look at the graph it clearly states that US, Regular Unleaded, for 6/02/08 is $3.976! So I'm just saying, someone F'ed up.
posted 30 weeks ago
I agree, epr118, this appears to have been settled early.

If you (or anyone) want to have it reopened, send a note via "Contact Us" (located at the bottom of every page) explaining the problem, and it will be reviewed quickly.
posted 30 weeks ago
  10 Erik
This was settled incorrectly. The link provided for settlement clearly shows "gasoline - all grades @ $4.026. The market clearly is concerning regular unleaded, which you will note has not yet topped $3.976 http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_w.htm
posted 30 weeks ago
  11 Erik
Thank you for the settlement "un-do"
posted 30 weeks ago
  12 Erik
Now, howevwe, this can be settled: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080608/ap_on_bi_ge/gas_at4_14
posted 30 weeks ago
  13 Erik
wow...where's my keyboard?
posted 30 weeks ago

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