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F1: Max Mosley's explicit Video Tape. What will happen?

Settled as He stays in his position but publicly appologizes

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/04/01/max-mosley-apologizes-sorta-wont-resign/

In a letter to members of various FIA constituent bodies, president Max Mosley apologized for the embarrassment caused to the organization by the tabloid report of his erstwhile private exploits. In the same letter, however, Mosley pledged to fight the allegations and remain in his position despite mounting calls for his resignation.

Background:

Varius F1 teams are protesting against Max Mosley, FIA Chief, who apparently is on a video. The video shows him together with five prostitutes in nazi-sex role play.
He is blamed to damage the image of the FIA as such.
If nothing occurs until the suspend date, the question settles "He stays in his position without apologizing".


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Max Mosley resigns from current position
0%
He is laid off from his current position by FIA
5%
He stays in his position but publicly appologizes
6%
He stays in his position without appologizing
88%
Activity: H$44,405
Settled as He stays in his position but publicly appologizes on Sat 12th Apr 2008 4:13am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 12th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 12th Apr 2008 4:13am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 12th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Max Mosley resigns from current position: 30%, He is laid off from his current position by FIA: 30%, He stays in his position but publicly appologizes: 20%, He stays in his position without appologizing: 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Apr 2008 1:40pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]
Edited Thu 3rd Apr 2008 5:59pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Thu 10th Apr 2008 11:19am PDT by kruijs[Power User]: see epicurs comment

the url of the link itself does tell enough. this is what i expected to be the situation for which i put up that option.
he has apologized - but stays. i did not mean that he would apologize for what he did.

if he would have apologized for what he actually did, he would confess he had done something substantially wrong and unjustifiable (from a perspective of representation of the FIA). If he would do that, he would not have any other option from resigning by himself. In that case, the question would have been to settle "resigns from current position".
Settlement requested Sat 12th Apr 2008 12:11am PDT by epicur: Please settle as "He stays in his position but publicly appologizes." See comment number 15 by administrator diana with regard to this settlement. A link to assist also follows.


http://www.autoblog.com/2008/04/01/max-mosley-apologizes-sorta-wont-resign/

Thanks.
Suspended Sat 12th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'He stays in his position but publicly appologizes' Sat 12th Apr 2008 4:13am PDT by diana: http://www.autoblog.com/2008/04/01/max-mosley-apologizes-sorta-wont-resign/

In a letter to members of various FIA constituent bodies, president Max Mosley apologized for the embarrassment caused to the organization by the tabloid report of his erstwhile private exploits. In the same letter, however, Mosley pledged to fight the allegations and remain in his position despite mounting calls for his resignation.

Suspend date: Sat 12th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 12th Apr 2008 4:13am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 12th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (135)

135 predictions

38 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted He stays in his position without appologizing (H$666 at 89%)
38 weeks ago
steph predicted He stays in his position without appologizing (H$1,000 at 84%)
38 weeks ago
steph predicted He stays in his position without appologizing (H$1,000 at 76%)
38 weeks ago
koltregaskes predicted He is laid off from his current position by FIA (H$50 at 19%)
38 weeks ago
bernardo predicted He stays in his position without appologizing (H$100 at 72%)
more

Comments (23)

hilarious
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 shadowfax
wait, here is a better one, check out the source!

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/3003_nazi_orgy.shtml
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 diana
Let's wait to see what unfolds:
Formula One great Jackie Stewart warned on Sunday that Max Mosley's involvement in a sex scandal could have a commercial impact on the sport and called for the FIA president to resign.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/motorSportsNews/idUKL062024120080406
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 shadowfax
this denial by him is precious; "has denied any Nazi connotations to the affair." wha? shameful to deny.

though he has a point regarding personal privacy, when one is in the position he was ( yea, he will canned) in, ya gotta be prepared to get fired or step down for your actions in private life. just ask former Guv. Spitzer.
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 randburg
"appologizes" & "appologizing"....

Welll letts ssee...ddo youu thinkk we coulld hhave a sppell checkker on hubbdub? Humann orr ottherwwise?
posted 39 weeks ago
It looks as though we already have one 8^) Not everyone on HD is a native speaker of English (or even Americun), so I try to take it easy on spelling and grammatical usage Not to mention that my Austrian is terrible 8^)
posted 39 weeks ago
  9 kruijs[Power User]
haha,

no, i'm not a native english speaker. i do my best not to stand out too much.
but i'm not an Austrian, Swiss or German either...

actually, my firefox spell checker should have hinted me on that spelling fault, though (it does when i copy/paste it into this text box).
must be slipped through.
posted 39 weeks ago
  10 kruijs[Power User]
Because this market settles very soon (the vote of confidence planned was not pronounced at the time of creation), there is a Q covering that topic.

Following up Q is here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/F1_Max_Mosleys_explicit_Video_Tape_What_will_be_the_Result_of_The_Vote_Of_Confidence_5587/view
posted 38 weeks ago
  11 kruijs[Power User]
Concerning this Q: All options are still valid, except for "He is laid off from his current position by FIA" because that might be the result of the vote of confidence and will not occur sooner therefor.
posted 38 weeks ago
  12 duckie
so is it settled as "stays in his position" if the suspend date is reached or is it just going to wait until he gets fired.. i mean, the situation is resolved?
posted 38 weeks ago
  13 kruijs[Power User]
as stated in the background:
"if nothing occurs until the suspend date, the question settles "He stays in his position without apologizing"."

I was expecting the current situation as i created the question initially, that's why i stated this disclosure in the background description.

it not very likely that he will resign or apologize until the suspend date now the vote of confidence has been pronounced. Also, when he is laid off by fia, it will happen on the vote of confidence - not before the suspend date of this question.

So, actually, it quite sure, by the suspend date of this question it will settle: "He stays in his position without apologizing"

posted 38 weeks ago
  14 epicur
Please address how the following link effects this question. There is room for interpretation. Does this count as an apology or not?

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/04/01/max-mosley-apologizes-sorta-wont-resign/
posted 38 weeks ago
  15 diana
That's interesting, epicur. Mosley appears to have apologized, but only for the embarrassment that it has caused, not for his behavior. Classic! If this is the case and no one "fires" him per se, then I suppose he would have apologized and stayed in his position.

Also this might lead to a good market:
There is growing opposition towards Mosley, and at this stage it appears inconceivable he can win a vote of confidence via a secret ballot of the FIA General Assembly to take place in Paris on June 3.
“Accordingly, CAA’s President, Tim Shearman, sent a letter dated Friday, April 4th, to the FIA formally asking for Mr Mosley’s resignation.
http://www.autoracingdaily.com/article/max-mosley-rumors-lessen-calls-for-resignation-increase/

I'm not keen on how the vote would work, so someone who is more familiar with the FIA could perhaps set a market based on this upcoming vote?

Cheers, Diana
posted 38 weeks ago
  16 kruijs[Power User]
diana, I already did: see comment 10
posted 38 weeks ago
  17 kruijs[Power User]
epicur, the url of the link itself does tell enough. this is what i expected to be the situation for which i put up that option.
he has apologized - but stays. i did not mean that he would apologize for what he did.

if he would have apologized for what he actually did, he would confess he had done something substantially wrong and unjustifiable (from a perspective of representation of the FIA). If he would do that, he would not have any other option from resigning by himself. In that case, the question would have been to settle "resigns from current position".

I will request settlement for these reasons.

I have 2K on the "stays without apologize" currently myself, but I'll leave my stakes in, because this baffles my actually. I was very convinced he would say it's just personal business.
posted 38 weeks ago
  18 ladylara
Ohh, I hope you are correct because I have my $$ on the lowly 1% line, too!!!!
posted 38 weeks ago
  19 kruijs[Power User]
lara,
I'm only appealing to common sense. but if that makes you a fortune ... - don't tell anybody, it could be we get convinced cheating ...
No HubDubBlackHats here I hope :) hehehe
posted 38 weeks ago
  20 kruijs[Power User]
can someone explain why people are putting money on the "He is laid off from his current position by FIA" option? That will not happen until the suspend (and settlement) date of this question?

and can someone explain why my settlement request get's ignored?
posted 38 weeks ago
  21 kruijs[Power User]
Any outcome of the vote of confidence is not covered by this Question

If nothing occurs until the suspend date - which is tonight, 11:59 - the question settles "He stays in his position without apologizing" as stated in the background.

Following up Q concerning the vote of confidence is here:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/F1_Max_Mosleys_explicit_Video_Tape_What_will_be_the_Result_of_The_Vote_Of_Confidence_5587/view
posted 38 weeks ago
  22 epicur
Kruijs, who are you to say what happens? Do you think you control things since you created the question? Well if you decided that if he apologized he would resign, then apologize and stay should not have been an option. It was though, and that is what is being debated. Do a better job of writing your questions if you want to avoid debate. There is one here though, and one of the editors of this site seems to disagree with you. And since they control the outcome, I will go along with what they think.
posted 38 weeks ago
  23 kruijs[Power User]
epicur,

i tried to explain why i had which options created in this question. and i tried to explain my intentions in each of the option. it could have been helpful in the debate, don't you think?

i have never said which way anyone must decide by my generosity. nor did i put anything or anyone in question. at least i did not want to do so. i just tried to help.

in my last comment i just tried to warn other users who staked money in this question concerning the outcome of the vote of confidence - which was obvious they were doing. i don't think there has been a debate of the suspend-/settlement date of this question.

as long as i think the authorities oversee some aspects or make mistakes - and at least as long i do not get any response - i will speak up.

therefor: who are you to tell me i should shut up?


posted 38 weeks ago

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