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F1: Who will win the Formula 1 Driver's Championship in 2008

Settled as Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

http://www.formula1.com/results/driver/2008/

Background:

This question will be settled one day before the second last race. After the settlement date of 11th Oct. 2008 the races in japan will take place as well as the race in china and the season final race in brasil.
Hopefully, the outcome will be as close as it was last year...

Odds based on
http://www.sportingbet.com/Motor-Sports;Formula-1-World-Championship-;Drivers-Championship---Outright-Winner/ECMARKET/7/35136/7,135,176,149

Market suspend date moved up to Oct. 31st due to market suspending prior to end of F1 season.


Settlement details: As reported by <a href="http://www.formula1.com/">http://www.formula1.com/<;/a>

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari)
0%
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
87%
Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
13%
Fernando Alonso (Renault)
0%
Heikki Kovalainen (Mercedes)
0%
Nick Heidfeld
0%
Robert Kubica
0%
Any other driver
0%
Activity: H$1,545,561
Settled as Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) on Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:07am PST

Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:07am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 31st Oct 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari): 34%, Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes): 22%, Felipe Massa (Ferrari): 18%, Fernando Alonso (Renault): 14%, Heikki Kovalainen (Mercedes): 7%, Nick Heidfeld: 2%, Robert Kubica: 2%, Any other driver: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 25th Feb 2008 1:47pm PST by kruijs[Power User]
Edited Wed 5th Mar 2008 12:23pm PST by chris[Admin]
Changed Suspend date Mon 6th Oct 2008 1:45pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: was: "2008-10-11 23:59:00"
Suspended Fri 31st Oct 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:03am PST by jake: Settle as Lewis Hamilton.

http://www.formula1.com/results/driver/2008/
Settled as 'Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)' Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:07am PST by mrperfkt[Admin]: http://www.formula1.com/results/driver/2008/

Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:07am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 31st Oct 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (2162)

2162 predictions

9 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$1,000 at 84%)
9 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$1,000 at 80%)
9 weeks ago
dschulian predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$150 at 81%)
9 weeks ago
zeal predicted Felipe Massa (Ferrari) (H$100 at 18%)
10 weeks ago
joseantonio predicted Felipe Massa (Ferrari) (H$100 at 12%)
more

Comments (17)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Should mention: Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica are drivers in the BMW Sauber team.
posted 45 weeks ago
1 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes GB 48
2 Felipe Massa Ferrari Brz 48
3 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Fin 48
4 Robert Kubica BMW Sauber Pol 46
5 Nick Heidfeld BMW Sauber Ger 36
6 Heikki Kovalainen McLaren-Mercedes Fin 24
7 Jarno Trulli Toyota Ita 20
8 Mark Webber Red Bull-Renault Aus 18
9 Fernando Alonso Renault Spa 13
10 Rubens Barrichello Honda Brz 11
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 cognos[Power User]
this market has finally exceeded $H1Million. Hooray!

Hats off to kruijs for this market.
posted 24 weeks ago
Truly amazing! Nicely done.
posted 24 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
Hats off to those who put so much money in this question recently. There has been heavy betting going on here the last two weeks. Season is half way through. Maybe this question will reach 2M before settlement.
posted 24 weeks ago
  6 bobsaget
I'm still flabbergasted by the lack of confidence people have in Hamilton. He's going to do it!

This question is brilliant though :))
posted 24 weeks ago
as at 23.7
01 Lewis Hamilton 58
02 Felipe Massa 54
03 Kimi Räikkönen 51
04 Robert Kubica 48
05 Nick Heidfeld 41
06 Heikki Kovalainen 28
07 Jarno Trulli 20
08 Mark Webber 18
09 Fernando Alonso 13
10 Rubens Barrichello 11
11 Nelsinho Piquet 10
12 Nico Rosberg 8
13 Kazuki Nakajima 8
14 David Coulthard 6
posted 24 weeks ago
  8 gregmatta
Why is #2 Felipe Massa (54) so low in the bidding? He's a steal.
posted 23 weeks ago
At 7 August:

01 Lewis Hamilton 62
02 Kimi Räikkönen 57
03 Felipe Massa 54
04 Robert Kubica 49
05 Nick Heidfeld 41
06 Heikki Kovalainen 38
07 Jarno Trulli 22
08 Fernando Alonso 18
09 Mark Webber 18
10 Timo Glock 13
11 Nelsinho Piquet 13
12 Rubens Barrichello 11
13 Nico Rosberg 8
14 Kazuki Nakajima 8
15 David Coulthard 6
16 Sebastian Vettel 6
17 Jenson Button 3
18 Sebastien Bourdais 2
19 Giancarlo Fisichella 0
20 Takuma Sato 0
21 Adrian Sutil 0
22 Anthony Davidson 0
posted 21 weeks ago
  10 php_ini
Aug 26
01 Lewis Hamilton 70
02 Felipe Massa 64
03 Kimi Räikkönen 57
04 Robert Kubica 55
05 Heikki Kovalainen 43
06 Nick Heidfeld 41
07 Jarno Trulli 26
08 Fernando Alonso 18
09 Mark Webber 18
10 Timo Glock 15
posted 19 weeks ago
  11 pixelpaws
Wow. This is the first question I've seen with more than a million dollars riding on it. o_O
posted 18 weeks ago
  12 php_ini
Sep 09
Pos Driver Nationality Team Points
1 Lewis Hamilton British McLaren-Mercedes 76
2 Felipe Massa Brazilian Ferrari 74
3 Robert Kubica Polish BMW Sauber 58
4 Kimi Räikkönen Finnish Ferrari 57
5 Nick Heidfeld German BMW Sauber 49
6 Heikki Kovalainen Finnish McLaren-Mercedes 43
7 Jarno Trulli Italian Toyota 26
8 Fernando Alonso Spanish Renault 23
9 Mark Webber Australian Red Bull-Renault 19
10 Timo Glock German Toyota
posted 17 weeks ago
  13 milds3vn
Alot of this hinges on the appeal by McLaren of the ridiculous penalty placed on Hamilton at Belgium. Purely an insane call, if you watch the race Hamilton lets off after cutting the chicane and lets Kimi pass him then attacks at the next corner. But they have seemed to overlook the fact that Kimi crashed on his own and cutting the curb had nothing to do with his win and was ultimately a trivial incident after Kimi crashed. Just makes no sense at all and I doubt the FIA will take it back no matter how ridiculous it is. If by some chance Lewis gets those point back it nearly becomes a no brainer that he wil win. Im a Ferrari fan but honestly want to see Hamilton win this thing, however Massa is running out of time to win a champ while Lewis will be around probably for another 10 or 15 years in a competitve ride. So I guess maybe I'm a bit torn cause Massa maybe has 2 maybe 3 years in a competitive car before he retires or Ferrari lets him go to a back marker team. But as it stands, Massa as someone said is a huge steal since these guys are only seperated by 1 point and I don't see Ferrari quiting anytime soon! It will no doubtedly be exciting as hell!!!! F1 owns all other sports!
posted 16 weeks ago
  14 milds3vn
mee know speek gudd engwish
posted 16 weeks ago
  15 coolkraft
"It's like a video game, it was great to see the curves, but the truth is you need to actually drive it to really understand how it is". Kimi Raikkonen quote on the venue for Formula One's next race the Singapore Grand Prix on Sept 28, Raikkonen who knows the track from a simulator is the reigning F1 champion but sits in fourth place with four races to go on the schedule.

a tidbit to chew on
posted 15 weeks ago
Interersting odds. These suggest a 75% Hamilton and 25% Massa odd split. I think this perhaps overstates Hamilton.
posted 13 weeks ago

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