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F1: Who will win the Formula 1 Driver's Championship in 2008

Current forecast: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (53% chance4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) with a probability of 53% (up 4% in last 1 day)

This question will be settled one day before the second last race. After the settlement date of 11th Oct. 2008 the races in japan will take place as well as the race in china and the season final race in brasil.
Hopefully, the outcome will be as close as it was last year...

Odds based on
http://www.sportingbet.com/Motor-Sports;Formula-1-World-Championship-;Drivers-Championship---Outright-Winner/ECMARKET/7/35136/7,135,176,149
 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari)
18%
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
53%
Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
24%
Fernando Alonso (Renault)
0%
Heikki Kovalainen (Mercedes)
0%
Nick Heidfeld
0%
Robert Kubica
2%
Any other driver
3%
Activity: H$1,267,976
Question suspends in 5 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.formula1.com/

Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 12:59am PDT (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari): 34%, Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes): 22%, Felipe Massa (Ferrari): 18%, Fernando Alonso (Renault): 14%, Heikki Kovalainen (Mercedes): 7%, Nick Heidfeld: 2%, Robert Kubica: 2%, Any other driver: 1%

Action history:

Created Mon 25th Feb 1:47pm PST by kruijs[Power User]
Edited Wed 5th Mar 12:23pm PST by chris[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.formula1.com/... read all

 

Predictions (1389)

1389 predictions

4 hours ago
earthlingorgeous predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$50 at 53%)
4 hours ago
shnout predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$100 at 51%)
10 hours ago
wandaoleary predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$1,000 at 58%)
1 day ago
keyeshoveden predicted Felipe Massa (Ferrari) (H$100 at 23%)
1 day ago
wandaoleary predicted Felipe Massa (Ferrari) (H$100 at 20%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Should mention: Nick Heidfeld and Robert Kubica are drivers in the BMW Sauber team.
posted 27 weeks ago
1 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes GB 48
2 Felipe Massa Ferrari Brz 48
3 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Fin 48
4 Robert Kubica BMW Sauber Pol 46
5 Nick Heidfeld BMW Sauber Ger 36
6 Heikki Kovalainen McLaren-Mercedes Fin 24
7 Jarno Trulli Toyota Ita 20
8 Mark Webber Red Bull-Renault Aus 18
9 Fernando Alonso Renault Spa 13
10 Rubens Barrichello Honda Brz 11
posted 7 weeks ago
  3 cognos[Power User]
this market has finally exceeded $H1Million. Hooray!

Hats off to kruijs for this market.
posted 6 weeks ago
Truly amazing! Nicely done.
posted 6 weeks ago
  5 kruijs[Power User]
Hats off to those who put so much money in this question recently. There has been heavy betting going on here the last two weeks. Season is half way through. Maybe this question will reach 2M before settlement.
posted 6 weeks ago
  6 bobsaget
I'm still flabbergasted by the lack of confidence people have in Hamilton. He's going to do it!

This question is brilliant though :))
posted 6 weeks ago
as at 23.7
01 Lewis Hamilton 58
02 Felipe Massa 54
03 Kimi Räikkönen 51
04 Robert Kubica 48
05 Nick Heidfeld 41
06 Heikki Kovalainen 28
07 Jarno Trulli 20
08 Mark Webber 18
09 Fernando Alonso 13
10 Rubens Barrichello 11
11 Nelsinho Piquet 10
12 Nico Rosberg 8
13 Kazuki Nakajima 8
14 David Coulthard 6
posted 6 weeks ago
  8 gregmatta
Why is #2 Felipe Massa (54) so low in the bidding? He's a steal.
posted 6 weeks ago
At 7 August:

01 Lewis Hamilton 62
02 Kimi Räikkönen 57
03 Felipe Massa 54
04 Robert Kubica 49
05 Nick Heidfeld 41
06 Heikki Kovalainen 38
07 Jarno Trulli 22
08 Fernando Alonso 18
09 Mark Webber 18
10 Timo Glock 13
11 Nelsinho Piquet 13
12 Rubens Barrichello 11
13 Nico Rosberg 8
14 Kazuki Nakajima 8
15 David Coulthard 6
16 Sebastian Vettel 6
17 Jenson Button 3
18 Sebastien Bourdais 2
19 Giancarlo Fisichella 0
20 Takuma Sato 0
21 Adrian Sutil 0
22 Anthony Davidson 0
posted 4 weeks ago
  10 php_ini
Aug 26
01 Lewis Hamilton 70
02 Felipe Massa 64
03 Kimi Räikkönen 57
04 Robert Kubica 55
05 Heikki Kovalainen 43
06 Nick Heidfeld 41
07 Jarno Trulli 26
08 Fernando Alonso 18
09 Mark Webber 18
10 Timo Glock 15
posted 1 week ago
  11 pixelpaws
Wow. This is the first question I've seen with more than a million dollars riding on it. o_O
posted 1 week ago

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