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Formula 1: Who will win the Japanese GP in Oyama on 12.10.2008

Current forecast: Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (22% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) with a probability of 22% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
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Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari)
17%
Felipe Massa (Ferrari)
17%
Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
22%
Heikki Kovalainen (Mercedes)
12%
Fernando Alonso (Renault)
6%
Nelson Piquet Jr. (Renault)
6%
Nick Heidfeld (BMW)
8%
Robert Kubica (BMW)
5%
Another driver (Williams, Honda or Toyota)
4%
Another driver (Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Super Aguri, Force India)
4%
Activity: H$2,409
Question suspends in 7 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sun 12th Oct 12:59am PDT (7 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari): 15%, Felipe Massa (Ferrari): 15%, Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes): 15%, Heikki Kovalainen (Mercedes): 15%, Fernando Alonso (Renault): 10%, Nelson Piquet Jr. (Renault): 10%, Nick Heidfeld (BMW): 9%, Robert Kubica (BMW): 9%, Another driver (Williams, Honda or Toyota): 1%, Another driver (Red Bull, Toro Rosso, Super Aguri, Force India): 1%

Action history:

Created Tue 19th Feb 6:29am PST by zaphod
Edited Wed 5th Mar 12:17pm PST by chris[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions

6 days ago
legojedi predicted Felipe Massa (Ferrari) (H$20 at 17%)
6 days ago
legojedi predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$100 at 21%)
5 weeks ago
legojedi predicted Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) (H$20 at 20%)
12 weeks ago
phex predicted Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari) (H$250 at 21%)
21 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari) (H$100 at 16%)
more

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