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Gene therapy will be approved by the FDA:

Current forecast: Before 2015 (46% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Before 2015 with a probability of 46% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Gene therapy research has the potential to revolutionise medical procedures but has so far produced many serious side-effects. When will this research by approved by the FDA?


Settlement details: As reported by the New York Times or Reuters or the BBC

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Before 2015
46%
Between 2015 and 2025
37%
After 2025
17%
Activity: H$2,732
Question suspends in 7 years

Suspend date: Mon 11th Jan 2016 11:59pm PST (7 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: Before 2015: 40%, Between 2015 and 2025: 40%, After 2025: 20%

Action history:

Created Fri 11th Jan 9am PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Mon 10th Mar 4:37am PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Mon 11th Jan 2016 11:59pm PST (7 years to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (14)

14 predictions

23 weeks ago
pezman predicted Before 2015 (H$100 at 45%)
24 weeks ago
ewhudson predicted Before 2015 (H$50 at 43%)
32 weeks ago
barbyflarby predicted Before 2015 (H$100 at 46%)
38 weeks ago
neverlupus predicted Between 2015 and 2025 (H$100 at 38%)
42 weeks ago
patto predicted Between 2015 and 2025 (H$50 at 33%)
more

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