How long will Cpl Laurean be on the run?
Settlement details:
Settled as the the number of days from Monday the 14th of January that Cpl Laurean is on the run from the authorities, as reported by CNN and/or the New York Times
SETTLEMENT NOTES:
Cpl Laurean has still been on the run longer than 15 days.
Settled
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0-1 days |
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2-4 days |
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5-8 days |
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9-14 days |
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15 days plus |
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Suspend date: Tue 29th Jan 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 30th Jan 8:24am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Jan 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 0-1 days: 10%, 2-4 days: 25%, 5-8 days: 25%, 9-14 days: 20%, 15 days plus: 20%
Action history:
Suspend date: Tue 29th Jan 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Wed 30th Jan 8:24am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Jan 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Predictions (244)
244 predictions
Comments (9)
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We have a dispute on the settlement of this question. I have agreed with the user to publish our email exchange (minus personal details of course). The options are to (1) Let the settlement stand or (2) Void the question which would mean losing predictions would have their stakes returned but winners would retain winnings. Let me know what you think.
Here is the exchange:
Subject: Settlement Dispute
Message:
In reference to:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_long_will_Cpl_Laurean_be_on_the_run_147
I entered my prediction only 2 days ago! There was NO clear or any other original begin date for this question. If I had known, because I could not find, the start date of this question I would have known that my prediction was ALREADY lost before I even made it! The start date should be clearly stated. I am disapointed at having been deducted my bet amount when there was no way I could possibly win nor any way to pick a winning date due to the lack of an original question date! Thank You.
My response:
I've just reviewed that question. I think it stands as the question was how long in total he was on the run for, additionally it was created on the 14th of January (you can find that under the Settlement details tab). I can however see potential for confusion. We are working to ensure that all new questions are as clear as possible.
User reply:
I am aware what the question means..how long he was on the run for... Do you not see a problem with allowing people, new people like me, to select an answer of 5-8 days when at the time I selected that answer 14 days had already elapsed and my answer had ALREADY lost before I ever picked it. Not only was there no possible way I could have ever won that bet but you still take my money!
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