Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
My Predictions

How long will Cpl Laurean be on the run?

Settled as 15 days plus

Apparently a massive manhunt is on the way for the guy: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/us/14cnd-marine.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

0-1 days
0%
2-4 days
2%
5-8 days
3%
9-14 days
5%
15 days plus
90%
Activity: H$22,318
Settled as 15 days plus on Wed 30th Jan 8:24am PST
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Settled as the the number of days from Monday the 14th of January that Cpl Laurean is on the run from the authorities, as reported by CNN and/or the New York Times


SETTLEMENT NOTES:
Cpl Laurean has still been on the run longer than 15 days.

Suspend date: Tue 29th Jan 11:59pm PST

Settlement date: Wed 30th Jan 8:24am PST

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Jan 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0-1 days: 10%, 2-4 days: 25%, 5-8 days: 25%, 9-14 days: 20%, 15 days plus: 20%

Action history:
Created Mon 14th Jan 10:37pm PST by nemesis
Settled Wed 30th Jan 8:24am PST
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Settled as the the number of days from Monday the 14th of January that Cpl Laurean is on the run from the authorities, as reported by CNN and/or the New York Times


SETTLEMENT NOTES:... read all

 

Predictions (244)

244 predictions

31 weeks ago
beardo predicted 15 days plus (H$100 at 90%)
31 weeks ago
southaustin predicted 9-14 days (H$20 at 6%)
31 weeks ago
epicur predicted 9-14 days (H$20 at 5%)
31 weeks ago
epicur predicted 0-1 days (H$20 at 0%)
31 weeks ago
epicur predicted 2-4 days (H$20 at 2%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 tarheelv
Is it me, but why are people choosing anything but 15 days plus? Unless he is captured in the next 12 hours, the 15 days will be over tonight since the close is tonight at 11:59 PST. I guess it is POSSIBLE and that is why we bet on it.
posted 31 weeks ago
The settlement date needs to be pushed back to the 2/14/08 so all the choices can be valid.
posted 31 weeks ago
  3 pics4d
"Settled as the the number of days from Monday the 14th of January"
posted 31 weeks ago
Why did this get suspended with 5 hours to go???
posted 31 weeks ago
  5 tarheelv
It was suspended at the end time. All questions are suspended at the end time until they are settled. In your profile, it says 6 hours because that was how long ago it was suspended. Something I am sure will be addressed during the beta.
posted 31 weeks ago
  6 beee
Why does the settle time keep increasing? This morning it said 4 hours. An hour later, it said 5. Then 6, 7 and no 8 hours! Did we discover a way to reverse time?
posted 31 weeks ago
Hi all,

We have a dispute on the settlement of this question. I have agreed with the user to publish our email exchange (minus personal details of course). The options are to (1) Let the settlement stand or (2) Void the question which would mean losing predictions would have their stakes returned but winners would retain winnings. Let me know what you think.

Here is the exchange:

Subject: Settlement Dispute
Message:
In reference to:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_long_will_Cpl_Laurean_be_on_the_run_147
I entered my prediction only 2 days ago! There was NO clear or any other original begin date for this question. If I had known, because I could not find, the start date of this question I would have known that my prediction was ALREADY lost before I even made it! The start date should be clearly stated. I am disapointed at having been deducted my bet amount when there was no way I could possibly win nor any way to pick a winning date due to the lack of an original question date! Thank You.

My response:
I've just reviewed that question. I think it stands as the question was how long in total he was on the run for, additionally it was created on the 14th of January (you can find that under the Settlement details tab). I can however see potential for confusion. We are working to ensure that all new questions are as clear as possible.

User reply:
I am aware what the question means..how long he was on the run for... Do you not see a problem with allowing people, new people like me, to select an answer of 5-8 days when at the time I selected that answer 14 days had already elapsed and my answer had ALREADY lost before I ever picked it. Not only was there no possible way I could have ever won that bet but you still take my money!
posted 30 weeks ago
  8 heyy_joe
This is a VERY unclear type of question wording. Whether or not the start date is clearly posted, which in my view it is not, any date range that has already passed should then be disabled as no longer valid. Period. People that are familiar with this site or answered in the earlier time frames would then have to accept their losing bet. There should be no option whatsoever to select an already expired date.
posted 30 weeks ago
  9 tarheelv
The wording is perfectly clear when you read the settlement date: "Settled as the the number of days from Monday the 14th of January that Cpl Laurean is on the run from the authorities, as reported by CNN and/or the New York Times"

www.hubdubforum.com
posted 30 weeks ago

Please log in or join to post a comment.

New to Hubdub?

Hubdub lets you play at predicting the outcomes of real running news questions

Start playing or learn more