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How long will Silvio Berlusconi stay in power as President of the Council of Ministers of Italy

Current forecast: 1 - 2 years (26% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 1 - 2 years with a probability of 26% (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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0 - 6 months
8%
6 months - 1 year
14%
1 - 2 years
26%
2 - 3 years
25%
3 - 4 years
14%
4 - 5 years
8%
More than 5 years
5%
Activity: H$361
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: 0 - 6 months: 8%, 6 months - 1 year: 15%, 1 - 2 years: 25%, 2 - 3 years: 25%, 3 - 4 years: 15%, 4 - 5 years: 7%, More than 5 years: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 16th Apr 2008 11:49am PDT by eponymoushero

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (6)

6 predictions

10 weeks ago
italianbabe predicted 2 - 3 years (H$50 at 25%)
30 weeks ago
hoernla predicted 2 - 3 years (H$20 at 25%)
34 weeks ago
exilpat predicted 1 - 2 years (H$20 at 26%)
37 weeks ago
space_oracle predicted 4 - 5 years (H$50 at 7%)
37 weeks ago
camicalm predicted 1 - 2 years (H$100 at 26%)

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