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How long will it take to have Heathrow's new, troubled Terminal 5 be cleared of the British Airway's estimated 15,000 stuck suitcases?

Settled as beyond a dozen days

Baggage not returned past the 12th day.

Background:

The Philadelphia Christmas baggage meltdown of '04 took 4 days to clear, but it was only half as big.


Settlement details: As reported by British Airways announcing the baggage backlog is, indeed, cleared and off to the owners. The countdown crisis began when T5 opened, so day 1 ended midnight GMT Thursday, March 27. Today, Sunday, is day 4.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

day 5 Mon.
0%
day 6 Tues.
1%
day 7 Wed.
1%
day 8 Thurs.
1%
day 9 Fri.
1%
day 10 Sat.
3%
day 11 Sun.
2%
beyond a dozen days
91%
Activity: H$15,343
Settled as beyond a dozen days on Tue 8th Apr 2008 4:58am PDT

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Tue 8th Apr 2008 4:58am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 8th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: day 5 Mon.: 10%, day 6 Tues.: 15%, day 7 Wed.: 20%, day 8 Thurs.: 20%, day 9 Fri.: 15%, day 10 Sat.: 10%, day 11 Sun. : 5%, beyond a dozen days: 5%

Action history:

Created Sun 30th Mar 2008 12:07pm PDT by ladylara
Edited Sun 30th Mar 2008 1:11pm PDT by diana
Settlement requested Sun 30th Mar 2008 11:37pm PDT by kruijs[Power User]: Please reword the last option to "12 or more days"
Settlement requested Mon 31st Mar 2008 3:23pm PDT by ladylara: It just dawned on me... At the end of each day, the people who voted on that day can remove their $ without a loss, since there is no settlement until it happens! So I guess we should close it down now?
Settlement requested Mon 7th Apr 2008 12:26am PDT by bipper: This question does not have a suspend date, but should be settled today. It has now been a dozen days and the luggage has not been returned - ask Naomi Campbell.
Settlement requested Mon 7th Apr 2008 5:22pm PDT by ladylara: I didn't catch the glitch in my settlement wording that required them to say it was cleared... the 12th date has come and gone. Shouldn't we settle?
Settlement requested Mon 7th Apr 2008 11:02pm PDT by randburg: We are already BEYOND "beyond a dozen days". Why doesn't this settle? We depend upon predictions to be settled promptly and NOT hold up investments in future predictions. Thanks!
Settled as 'beyond a dozen days' Tue 8th Apr 2008 4:58am PDT by diana: Baggage not returned past the 12th day.

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Tue 8th Apr 2008 4:58am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 8th Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (102)

102 predictions

39 weeks ago
paulcroft predicted beyond a dozen days (H$100 at 92%)
39 weeks ago
circuitfire predicted day 11 Sun. (H$3 at 2%)
39 weeks ago
deek22 predicted day 11 Sun. (H$50 at 1%)
39 weeks ago
aventura predicted beyond a dozen days (H$100 at 92%)
39 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted beyond a dozen days (H$500 at 91%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 ladylara
Oops! The last choice should read "12 or more days", otherwise, a dozen is left out!
posted 40 weeks ago
  2 diana
Cool, the outcomes can't be amended, so we'll take that to mean "12 or more days" - Diana
posted 40 weeks ago
LL - this is a great question!
posted 40 weeks ago
  4 diana
The British Airways website earlier today has made no statements in regards to bags being cleared. This market will run in accordance to settlement details: 'As reported by British Airways announcing the baggage backlog is, indeed, cleared and off to the owners.'
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 bipper
Diana - in your comment last week you said "Cool, the outcomes can't be amended, so we'll take that to mean "12 or more days"." since today is the 12th day, anyone holding this position has already won...what happens if BA never makes the announcement?
posted 39 weeks ago
  6 randburg
Ok Diana: TWELVE OR MORE DAYS HAS PASSED and passed and...

Can we please have our settlement??
posted 39 weeks ago

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