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How many 1+ earthquakes will take place in the USA on Friday 28th March 2008? [revised AGAIN]

Settled as 86-95


If you void this, I will follow you around making pissy remarks.....


:-)


Settlement details: As reported on http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/quakes_all.php.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Less than 50
3%
50-75
6%
76-85
9%
86-95
15%
96-99 or 101-105
16%
100(Bet on this if you are feeling lucky!!)
7%
106-111
16%
112-117
9%
118-124
9%
125 or more
10%
Activity: H$2,587
Settled as 86-95 on Sat 29th Mar 2008 7:01pm PDT

Suspend date: Fri 28th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 29th Mar 2008 7:01pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Less than 50: 5%, 50-75: 10%, 76-85: 10%, 86-95: 15%, 96-99 or 101-105: 20%, 100(Bet on this if you are feeling lucky!!): 1%, 106-111: 14%, 112-117: 10%, 118-124: 10%, 125 or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 25th Mar 2008 9:45am PDT by rohan
Suspended Fri 28th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 28th Mar 2008 6:07pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: 85 earthquakes
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Settlement requested Sat 29th Mar 2008 5:17am PDT by rohan: I counted 88
Settlement requested Sat 29th Mar 2008 5:32am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: my bad. its 88.
Settled as '86-95' Sat 29th Mar 2008 7:01pm PDT by dejman
Clarified Tue 8th Apr 2008 12:01am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Earthquake links are settled according to information available at the time of settlement, as it is undesirable to have questions suspended until the availability of final data, which does not have a defined time frame.

In future, the time and date when all earthquake settlement links are checked will be posted. An amendment to the Rules has been made.

Suspend date: Fri 28th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 29th Mar 2008 7:01pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 28th Mar 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (42)

42 predictions

40 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 50-75 (H$20 at 6%)
40 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 100(Bet on this if you are feeling lucky!!) (H$20 at 4%)
40 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 106-111 (H$50 at 16%)
40 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 96-99 or 101-105 (H$50 at 16%)
40 weeks ago
triathematician predicted 86-95 (H$50 at 15%)
more

Comments (9)

  1 rohan

PLEASE, DON'T VOID THIS

PLEASE, DON'T VOID THIS
PLEASE, DON'T VOID THIS
PLEASE, DON'T VOID THIS
PLEASE, DON'T VOID THIS
</H1>
posted 41 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
I'll keep my fingers crossed for this Q not being void, hehe, this time :)
posted 41 weeks ago
  3 pics4d
why do most of the options have different amounts? ie 50-75 is 26, theres also differences of 5,6,7,9,&10
posted 41 weeks ago
that is where you have to make an informed prediction 4d
posted 41 weeks ago
  5 rohan
Beacuse the average earthquakes are about 90. Therefore, less than 75 seems remote.
posted 41 weeks ago
  6 destry[Admin]
Two issues I see are the times zones and are probable quarry explosions going to count. No time zone was indicated for this market, the site uses UTC, which is different than the default time zones.
posted 41 weeks ago
  7 rohan
the market will be settled by the date on the site,like all the rest of the earthquake ones
posted 41 weeks ago
I thought my first count of 85 last night at 12:08 must have just been off when Rohan got 88, but as I looked at the numbers again I realized that there are now 90. I take it some of the feeds take longer to get processed? Does anyone know how long we have to wait to be sure we have them all in? Maybe we should just agree on a specific cutoff time for future questions?
posted 40 weeks ago
  9 tisha[Admin]
Earthquake links are settled according to information available at the time of settlement, as it is undesirable to have questions suspended until the availability of final data, which does not have a defined time frame.

In future, the time and date when all earthquake settlement links are checked will be posted. An amendment to the Rules has been made.
posted 39 weeks ago

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