meanderingsearcher
How many 4.0 (or greater) earthquakes will there be on Sunday Feb, 10, 2008
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Settlement details:
As listed at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Settled
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1 to 3 |
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4 to 6 |
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7 to 9 |
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more than 9 |
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Suspend date: Sat 9th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 10th Feb 2008 3:33pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 9th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: 1 to 3: 10%, 4 to 6: 20%, 7 to 9: 30%, more than 9: 40%
Action history:
meanderingsearcher 
tisha![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Suspend date: Sat 9th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 10th Feb 2008 3:33pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 9th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (137)
137 predictions
mernahuana
predicted 1 to 3 (H$50 at 22%)
peachymonk
predicted 1 to 3 (H$100 at 20%)
predicted 4 to 6 (H$100 at 24%)
predicted 1 to 3 (H$50 at 22%)
predicted 1 to 3 (H$20 at 21%)
predicted 7 to 9 (H$100 at 32%)
tommyray
predicted more than 9 (H$50 at 23%)
pics4d
predicted more than 9 (H$500 at 14%)
pepeComments (4)
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meanderingsearcher
144 settled, 40 voided
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
I'm also assuming this is Feb 10 2008 UTC and not some other time zone like EST or PST?
Is somebody trying to manipulate this market?
If I place a huge bet on what looks like good odds, my huge bet compared to existing bets will ruin my odds, so I'll pull out.
For example, a market with only $100 has 50-50 odds. But, if I dump $10,000 into it, thinking that I'll get a $20,000, I'll pull out immediately after finding out that I'll only win $100 with my $10,000.
So, I'm guessing, the spikes were someone betting big only to find out that the low returns on a huge bet wouldn't be worth it.
Just a guess.
= )
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