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How many 4.0 (or greater) earthquakes will there be on Thursday Feb. 14, 2008

Settled as 7 to 9


Settlement details: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

0 to 2
8%
3 to 6
33%
7 to 9
48%
more than 9
12%
Activity: H$26,550
Settled as 7 to 9 on Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:36pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 13th Feb 2008 12pm PST Settlement date: Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:36pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 13th Feb 2008 12pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 to 2: 5%, 3 to 6: 15%, 7 to 9: 30%, more than 9: 50%

Action history:

Created Mon 11th Feb 2008 1:32pm PST by meanderingsearcher
Suspended Wed 13th Feb 2008 12pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 14th Feb 2008 12:33pm PST by bostongraf: Nine earthquakes over 4.0 have been reported on the provided link.
Settled as '7 to 9' Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:36pm PST by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 13th Feb 2008 12pm PST Settlement date: Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:36pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 13th Feb 2008 12pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (124)

124 predictions

47 weeks ago
jake predicted 0 to 2 (H$20 at 8%)
47 weeks ago
jackbenimble predicted 3 to 6 (H$100 at 31%)
47 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted 7 to 9 (H$100 at 58%)
47 weeks ago
jakob predicted 3 to 6 (H$20 at 28%)
47 weeks ago
deek22 predicted 3 to 6 (H$50 at 26%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 deewigi
Will this be settled according to number of earthquakes worldwide during the 24 hrs of Feb 14 Pacific time, or according to whether it's Feb 14 in the place where an earthquake occurs? Just wondering...
posted 47 weeks ago
  2 newcynic
according the the website which the creator referenced, there were 10 eq greater than 4.0 on Feb 14 in the world. Sometimes you must check back after 24 hours to see what the final calculation on the eq magnitude was. Often there is a preliminary number reported and then a final number.
posted 45 weeks ago

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