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How many 5.0 (or greater) earthquakes will there be on Wed. March 5, 2008 ?

Settled as two

Source link checked at 10:26 PST, 6 March 2008


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source or http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

zero
0%
one
1%
two
1%
three
6%
four
6%
five
9%
six
7%
seven
6%
nine
9%
ten or more
56%
Activity: H$10,400
Settled as two on Thu 6th Mar 2008 10:27am PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 6th Mar 2008 10:27am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: zero: 1%, one: 4%, two: 5%, three: 10%, four: 15%, five: 15%, six: 20%, seven: 15%, nine: 10%, ten or more: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 1st Mar 2008 7:31pm PST by meanderingsearcher
Clarified Tue 4th Mar 2008 3:13am PST by lesley[Admin]: If there are 8,the question will be voided.
Suspended Tue 4th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 6th Mar 2008 10:21am PST by chull: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Settled as 'two' Thu 6th Mar 2008 10:27am PST by tisha[Admin]: Source link checked at 10:26 PST, 6 March 2008

Suspend date: Tue 4th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Thu 6th Mar 2008 10:27am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (70)

70 predictions

44 weeks ago
orlin predicted three (H$100 at 3%)
44 weeks ago
constantskeptic predicted ten or more (H$20 at 57%)
44 weeks ago
shadowfax predicted nine (H$100 at 7%)
44 weeks ago
shadowfax predicted four (H$100 at 5%)
44 weeks ago
shadowfax predicted nine (H$100 at 3%)
more

Comments (5)

  1 shadowfax
What if there is 8 Quakes?
currently 3rd March there are 11 for the day.
posted 44 weeks ago
  2 shadowfax
there are, there is... does this q need an 8 option?
posted 44 weeks ago
  3 lesley[Admin]
If there are 8, the question will be voided.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 44 weeks ago
  4 shadowfax
Thanks Leslie, I appreciate it.
These Quake markets are compelling to me!
posted 44 weeks ago
  5 drdavin
the heck is with all this quake questions.... i can't even decide on any of it
posted 44 weeks ago

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