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How many Canadian soldiers will die in Afghanistan in March?

Settled as 0 to3

http://icasualties.org/oef/byNationality.aspx?hndQry=Canada

3 deaths


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

0 to3
88%
4 to 6
7%
7 or more
5%
Activity: H$9,150
Settled as 0 to3 on Wed 2nd Apr 2008 4:04pm PDT

Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 2nd Apr 2008 4:04pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0 to3: 30%, 4 to 6: 40%, 7 or more: 30%

Action history:

Created Wed 27th Feb 2008 8:23am PST by meanderingsearcher
Clarified Sun 2nd Mar 2008 5:10am PST by ryanj[Admin]: The market wording is a bit unnecessary to shorten up the question and create less contention, "while trying to help the Afghan people" has been edited out.
Edited Sun 2nd Mar 2008 5:11am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 1:20pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as '0 to3' Wed 2nd Apr 2008 4:04pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: http://icasualties.org/oef/byNationality.aspx?hndQry=Canada

3 deaths

Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 2nd Apr 2008 4:04pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (39)

39 predictions

40 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted 0 to3 (H$200 at 88%)
40 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted 0 to3 (H$500 at 86%)
40 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted 0 to3 (H$440 at 83%)
40 weeks ago
brent predicted 4 to 6 (H$10 at 10%)
40 weeks ago
brent predicted 0 to3 (H$200 at 83%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
The market wording is a bit unnecessary to shorten up the question and create less contention, "while trying to help the Afghan people" has been edited out.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 44 weeks ago
Another death casino type question.
Take a look at meanderingsearcher's question history, you'll find evidence of a 'death-inspired' mind.
These death peddlers will be exposed!
Onward anti-dead pool brigade!
posted 43 weeks ago
guees yer rant made you miss the part about "while trying to help" has been edited out. that is because the question was too editorial, hence is was made to be a "hard news" question. my intent was to see if there would be the same response as the "dead americans" got. it received no response; until now. I only post questions from sites that i check regularly and/or have newfeeds from. i find it amusing that your ongoing and overbearing chatter is about questions formulated from mostly AMERICAN newsites. I am not american and i respect your right to freedom of speech however by bets on your country ever ruling the world would have to be placed on the freedom of speech issue/s
posted 43 weeks ago
  4 mork[Power User]
"death casino" ?

Not exactly... These are world events that are reported on nightly.
If a question like this promotes awareness I am all for it.

These people are risking their lives for the betterment of almost anonymous people and deserve acknowledgment and not disregard.

I have looked at meanderingsearchers questions and they cover a broad spectrum of topics.

I guess its not worth trying to expose the troll when he is waving a flag.
posted 43 weeks ago
  5 mork[Power User]
people like him are the reason fox is a success.
posted 43 weeks ago
i do not watch fox.

mork - "These people are risking their lives for the betterment of almost anonymous people and deserve acknowledgment and not disregard. "

I've been there, done that, and i'm still being disregarded. There are better ways to promote awareness of the soldiers plight. Wagering on how many will die is not the kind attention they want or deserve.

Put your shoes on, go down to the local recruitment station, and sign up. If you can't for any reason, find a service man or woman who is home on leave and thank them. That is all they want. A sincere thank you.

To a man or woman, if you tell them that while they were gone, that you supported them on the home front by betting on the lowest corpse count, it would bring great dishonor upon them. Go ahead. Tell them. You'll be waving a white flag.



posted 43 weeks ago
  7 mork[Power User]
We Are Not betting on anything here. Let's not forget this is imaginary currency.

I see the value of hubdub's educational abilities with questions.

For some people seeing this question it may be the first they become aware that Canadians are in Afghanistan.

I might have to sign up seeing as you guys are too busy cleaning up the mess you made in Iraq over your presidents personal vendetta's you can't concentrate the efforts where it was obviously needed in the first place.

*sighs
posted 43 weeks ago
  8 randburg
I would prefer that questions like THIS ONE die, instead of good Canadian Soldiers. How could a question like this one be REWORKED, so that it informs all that Canadian Soldiers are in Afghanistan WITHOUT counting corpses? I agree that it serves a very useful purpose, but NOT in a death pool format...
posted 43 weeks ago
i'm open to suggestions, it was edited from it's original format once already
posted 43 weeks ago
How about ...

Will Canada continue to lose the lives of their best countrymen and women in Afghanistan during the month of March? Yes/No.

Informative, not provoking, no betting on the body-count. Less $H to be made, because of the yes/no.
these types of q's should be created a month in advance, and suspend on the first day of the month in question, to limit market movements based on updates throughout the month.
Starting odds in this case might be : Yes-80% No-20%

Your thoughts ?
posted 42 weeks ago
the problem is we have to post in a newspaper format, editorial content could be seen as a bias and could be mistaken as the question poster's effort to "game" the market or push their own agenda. i posted the question with a positve slant to see what comments it would draw while the "death pool" fracas was tearing up the comments. while i beleive that ryan needs to spank some of the commenters on the spitzer questions, it is interesting how the site has matured in the last week. all of we hubdubbers are finding our "places" and the "rules" of our playground and are learning how we can influence our playtime with constructive input(still think there should be some serious spanking going on). while i agree with the format of your question, you can see how your starting odds would draw the ire of those who enjoy the spanking part
posted 42 weeks ago

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