Created Thu 3rd Apr 2008 4:26am PST by

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,589)

How many German Landesbanken will survive the year 2009?

Settled as No changes....Germans are too conservative....8!

No changes...for whatever reason.

Background:

Background: The current financial crisis and/or recent mismanagement brought some Landesbanken (state banks owned by the Bundesländer) considerable losses, e.g. the WestLB or the BayernLB.

By April 2008, there are 8 Landesbanken, the 9th (SachsenLB) just having been swallowed by the LBBW.

How many will there still be at the beginning of 2010?

(The Bundesbank doesn't count).

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

I suggest you rely on
www.spiegel.de
or also
de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landesbank

Forecast history %

Landesbanken will split up...there will be more than 8!

No changes....Germans are too conservative....8!

96%

One will buy it....7!

And another one bites the dust....6!

No, there will be chaos and disorder....5 or less!

Settled as No changes....Germans are too conservative....8! on Thu 7th Jan 7:18am PST

Activity: H$30,222
Predictions: 86
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 3pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 7th Jan 7:18am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 31st Dec 2009 3pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Landesbanken will split up...there will be more than 8!: 1%, No changes....Germans are too conservative....8!: 39%, One will buy it....7!: 30%, And another one bites the dust....6!: 20%, No, there will be chaos and disorder....5 or less!: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Apr 2008 4:26am PST by

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,589)

Suspended Thu 31st Dec 2009 3pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 7th Jan 2:52am PST by

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,589)

: No changes occured and it is 2010 now.

Settled as 'No changes....Germans are too conservative....8!' Thu 7th Jan 7:18am PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: No changes...for whatever reason.

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Predictions (86)

12 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,589)

predicted No changes....Germans are too conservative....8! (H$2,525 at 93%)

15 weeks ago

luckger Level 5, Predictor (H$1,821)

predicted No changes....Germans are too conservative....8! (H$100 at 91%)

15 weeks ago

joffi

predicted No changes....Germans are too conservative....8! (H$100 at 90%)

17 weeks ago

kruijs [Power User]

predicted No changes....Germans are too conservative....8! (H$3,000 at 89%)

17 weeks ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,589)

predicted No changes....Germans are too conservative....8! (H$300 at 79%)

Comments (3)

kruijs [Power User]

I don't want to obstruct, but should the Q be 2008? Or shall we wait until 2009 is over before settlement? That'd be a long term prediction ...

posted 1 year ago

kruijs [Power User]

Oh, wait, the background actually states "beginning of 2010". OK, than this really is a Q for long term predicting ... :)

posted 1 year ago

hoernla Level 13, Psychic (H$76,589)

Yes, despite the urgency of the current crisis, German Landesbanken move rather slow and I doubt that a restructuring of the system will show many effect in the remaining months of this year. Thus I chose a wider scope encompassing 2009.

posted 1 year ago

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