Created Tue 22nd Apr 6:41am PDT by

How many Hubdubbers will have weekly percentage gains of 100% or more for the week ending April 27, 2008?

Settled as Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more

Now that we're doing the weekly boards, we will have new faces appearing more often. Last week one or two Hubdubbers had gains of over 100%. How many will there be this week?

% chance over time

Zoom in

Settled

No one will have a gain equal to or over 100% for the week

One or two Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more

17%

Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more

70%

Five or more Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more

Activity: H$8,845

Settled as Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more on Mon 28th Apr 5:47am PDT

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Sat 26th Apr 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Mon 28th Apr 5:47am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 26th Apr 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: No one will have a gain equal to or over 100% for the week: 25%, One or two Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more: 45%, Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more: 20%, Five or more Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more: 10%

Action history:

Created Tue 22nd Apr 6:41am PDT by

bayoubear

Suspended Sat 26th Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Mon 28th Apr 4:51am PDT by

jenniandboys [Power User]

: There appear to be 3.

Settled as 'Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more' Mon 28th Apr 5:47am PDT by

tomg

: There were three
1 kannypredictor +136.8%
2 No user imageyeagerstew +128.1%
3 lius +115.9%

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

Comments

Predictions

Recent predictions

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted One or two Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$100)

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted Five or more Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$50)

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted No one will have a gain equal to or over 100% for the week (H$50)

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted One or two Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$10)

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted No one will have a gain equal to or over 100% for the week (H$3)

12 weeks ago

steph predicted Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$500)

12 weeks ago

onedave predicted Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$1)

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted No one will have a gain equal to or over 100% for the week (H$4)

12 weeks ago

epicur predicted One or two Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$10)

12 weeks ago

theonecalledmichael predicted Three or Four Hubdubbers will gain 100% or more (H$500)

jenniandboys [Power User]

I like this question, but think it might be too open to gaming. The people hovering at the 100% mark tend to have pretty small portfolios. Anyone with a little bit of money can swing these smaller user accounts around wildly -- especially since many of them have open predictions. I thought we may have seen a bit of that last week.

The leaderboard questions focused on the top guys tend to be a little safer as 1) their predictions are usually closed and 2) very few people have enough money to change their positions. Although there has been good argument to stop those as well... I dunno. Other opinions?

posted 12 weeks ago

epicur

This question suspends 2 days before the end of the week numbers. It would be harder to game with that many days worth of changes to control.

posted 12 weeks ago

kartik

I have just checked the leaderboard 20 hours before suspension. There two people who have more than 100% but there is a person who is close and he has a bet that is suspended. I hope he either loses or this question is settled before he get money because if not i lose to saying 2 people.

posted 12 weeks ago

kartik

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I checked it and there are three players!! I cant cash out and I bet on two!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

posted 11 weeks ago