How many consecutive weekends will " Horton Hears a Who " remain #1 at the North American Box Office?

Some of you may worry that your money could be tied up for 4 weeks, well, if this film drops out of the #1 for even a single weekend, whether that be next week or 3 weeks or 5, this question will end as soon as that occurs, therefore, this question may wrap up early, depending on the box office results, so you don't have to worry about how long this may take to get your money back :-D Unless you think it'll go 5 weeks :-P
Happy betting,

lucidstates

A flag was brought up regarding there being no option for "no weeks." If it wasn't up for any weeks I would imagine a void would be likely.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

I agree with you, Ryan and whoever flagged this, that if it doesn't open #1 then it will have to be voided, but the evidence at hand shows that it opens in 3,954 theaters with the second newcomer (Never Back Down) coming in on a whopping 2,225 fewer theaters and last weeks #1 (10,000 BC) showing that it should lose 50% of its audience, meaning that Horton Hears a Who simply needs to take in some $17.5 million to beat 10,000 BC which is still playing in some 700 more theaters than its nearest competitor. On top of this, Horton Hears a Who has positively dismal competition in the family genre and folks are eager for a fun "summer feel" movie, so I am 99.99% sure that it will open #1.
For clarification, if there happens to be anybody who may think that the first weekend of release is not on this list, please look at the options closer, as I hoped that I'd made it quite clear with the first option saying: Only the 1st Weekend of Release at #1. Meaning exactly that, first weekend in release which is this weekend.
If anyone misunderstood that, I am sorry and thank you all for your interest in this question.

Happy Betting :-D

lucidstates

Sorry, (Never Back Down) is coming out on 1,225 fewer, not 2,225 fewer, hahaha, typo :-P

lucidstates

Its amazing: I got in on both 1 and 2 weeks on their lows!

Horton Hears a Who is tearing up the box office! Mon $3.6 mil, Tue $3.92 mil, Wed $3.96 ... This film is actually growing its box office during the week and as it ages, this is a great sign ... Also, this is Easter Weekend coming up and other then Drillbit Taylor, Horton has the family ganre in its pocket and Easter is a family time :-D
I am betting Horton will take this weekends box office, absolutely!

lucidstates

There really doesn't look like much competition for a while, I'm going more on 3 weeks.

I hope " Run Fat Boy Run" doesn't overtake it.

Hahahaha, Run, Fat Boy Run, huh? Hahaha You are hilarious man :-D

Owl1,

I think I'm with ya on 3 weeks! I am keeping some of my 2 week just in case, but you're right, next weekends' films are even weaker then this weekends!

lucidstates

Weekend Update: Theater counts are officially in folks:
3,056 theaters for DRILLBIT TAYLOR
2,753 theaters for SHUTTER
2,006 theaters for Tyler Perry's MEET THE BROWNS

This has utterly shocked me, I never thought MTB would be less then 2,700 do to his previous flicks being so big in their initial weekends of release.

BTW, on this family Holiday, Horton Hears a Who added 7 new theaters, bringing its total higher then its opening weekend and now has 3,961 total!

lucidstates

Weekend Update: Theater counts are officially in folks:
3,056 theaters for DRILLBIT TAYLOR
2,753 theaters for SHUTTER
2,006 theaters for Tyler Perry's MEET THE BROWNS

This has utterly shocked me, I never thought MTB would be less then 2,700 do to his previous flicks being so big in their initial weekends of release.

BTW, on this family Holiday, Horton Hears a Who added 7 new theaters, bringing its total higher then its opening weekend and now has 3,961, keeping its total near the 4,000 mark!

Also, estimates are now in for next weekends new releases:
2,700 theaters - SUPERHERO! Movie
2,500 theaters - 21
1,200 theaters - Stop-Loss
1,050 theaters - Run, Fat Boy, Run

lucidstates

Wow, Horton just continues to grow!
It has made more money each and every day midweek since its first weekend!
Mon - $3.61 million!
Tue - $3.92 million up 8.11%
Wed - $3.96 million up 0.81%!!
Thu - $4.82 million up a whopping 21.72%

Is that awesome or what?

My weekend prediction (not like it matters, but hey, here it is anyway)
Horton Hears a Who - $29 - $33 million
Meet the Browns - $21.7 - $24.5 million
Drillbit Taylor - $14 - $17.5 million

Could I be wayyyy off? Yeah, and I probably am, but I'm gonna throw out a prediction anyway :-D

lucidstates

Looks quite similar to this:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/games/

I have to say though... what about superhero movie in week 3? Scary Movie 4 made $40mil in its opening weekend in the Spring... There's no way Horton will make more than about $15mil or so in its 3rd week.

Weekend Update:

HORTON HEARS A WHO #1 on Friday!!!!!!!

That's right folks, Horton is number #1 again so far this weekend, earning more than $10 million and besting Meet the Browns by about 30%!

Here's Friday's numbers:
#1 ... $10.32 million - Horton Hears a Who
#2 ... $7.951 million - Meet the Browns
#3 ... $4.418 million - Shutter
#4 ... $4.065 million - Drillbit Taylor
#5 ... $3.075 million - 10,000 BC

We are on our way to at least 2 straight weekends of Who-riffic box office receipts.

triathematician, I hear you man, but I do have one thing, have you seen the trailer for Superhero! Movie? It is NO Scary Movie 4, and besides that, the last movie like this one was in fact not Scary Movie 4, but was Meet the Spartans which brought in $18.5 million opening, before that was Epic Movie at $18.6 million opening, and right before Scary Movie 4, was Date Movie which brought in $19 million opening.
My point is, US audiences are tiring of these types of films and the thing that Scary Movie 4 had going for it was its Scary Movie title that was well known, not this Superhero! Movie.
Superhero! Movie is expected to bring in anywhere from $14 million to $17.5 million next weekend. Now I could see it maxing out at $18 million, but no more than that.
Now you take Horton Hears a Who and take its opening of $45.1 million, then take this weekends estimated $29.5 - $33 million, that is a drop off of only 26% - 35% week over week, that is a very good hold, so lets take the higher end out of next weekends B.O. and you get approximately $19 - $21.5 million if it drops 35% again, still besting Superhero! Movie, if the estimates hold up that is. Now if Superhero! does in fact open at a paltry $15 million, then Horton could still drop a whopping 50% week over week and still beat it.
Now this is all speculation, but I do think the numbers will be right close to all of these given. I am taking multiple sources into account here from the-numbers.com, HSX, and others.

Happy Betting Everyone,

lucidstates

P.S. Here is an excerpt from www.the-numbers.com about Superhero! Movie:
Total Box Office Potential: $50 million
Notes: A spoof of Super Hero movies by the same people who brought us the last two Scary Movie releases. While these films have not earned great reviews, they have performed much better than the Date / Epic / Spartan movies. Also, in an interview David Zucker, who is producing, compared the movie to the Naked Gun series saying it had a unified plot to go with the parodies of specific Super Hero films. If this is true, it could actually be a good movie. I'm not willing to bet money it will be, but one can always hope. As for the film's box office chances, the four Scary Movie films have earned an average of $100 million, while the other spoof franchise mentioned above has earned an average of just over $40 million. Superhero! should finish somewhere in the middle, but on the lower end. Even if the film earns good reviews, it is unlikely to earn a lot of money as the glut of terrible spoofs as damaged the genre so much that most moviegoers will likely stay away.

is this one actually so good?

Horton? Not really. I fell asleep twenty minutes into the film and am embarrassed they got my money....

It's sugar and spice and everything nice, so it's for little girls six years of age and under. But since the movie distributors did a lousy job of planning Easter weekend, Horton Hears the Jingle of the Cash Register...Or should I say, The Swipe of a Credit Card?

you can get money back like boys in show south park did the one they watched movie by mel gibson and did not like they got money back from him i think

Funny how America loves to win, yet hates the winner :-P Don't worry Horton, *lowers voice to a whisper* "they secretly love you, big guy."

Listen Boys, if you don't like the movies, then stop going to see little girl flicks and go see "a real man's movie," if your wife will let you, or do adult flicks possibly scare you too much? I guess a giant elephant is too much for a grown man to handle these days, and besides, a real man couldn't possibly admit to actually liking one, cause after all, what would the boys back at the office say? How unmanly to actually enjoy a cartoon. Oh wait, that's right, you had to see it cause you got a 6 yr old girl who loves cartoons. Is it too much to enjoy it with her? Does it bother you to see a child enjoy a flick with her dad? Or is that your pride blocking the silver screen?
Wow, $86 million in 10 days, now that begs a question. Is it just me, or would that mean that there's an awful lot of 6 yr old girls in this country? *types on calculator* $86 million divided by $7.50 / ticket = over 11,466,666 little six year old girls ..... Do we reallly have that many in North America? ... Hmmm, lemme check .............. Nope, not THAT many little girls, wow, I guess a few "grown up" big and strong men actually do like cartoon elephants, even if they won't admit it :-P I guess losing some virtual play time fake H$ is already tooooo much to handle, they couldn't possibly add to their life's utter humiliation by actually admitting that they let out a tiny smile or chuckle just once during the movie.
Hmm, so when this film crosses $100 million, I guess it will have expanded its audience to include maybe a few 7 or 8 year olds too. Wow, who coulda seen that coming from such a "lousy" movie?
Oh well, I guess we have allot of little girls in this country after all and a whole lot of little boys posing as daddy's too :-D

Did I overreact? Probably, but give me a break guys, you really hate this movie sooo much? I didn't know a giant elephant had such a negative effect on this society.

Peace and chicken grease,

lucidstates

No, I didn't care for Horton, but I don't mind if others enjoy it...of all ages.

You "sort of" suggest that I might not like animated films: WRONG! A number of the latest ones have adult appeal and are getting better every year. I enjoyed CARS and ROBOTS very much. And this past year's oscar winner RATATOUILLE is an absolute classic! As well as Ratatouille's adjoining cartoon, both in the theaters and on the DVD. The spoof on CLOSE ENCOUNTERS is very good indeed.

So, while Horton is not my choice, I would think that generations raised on Dr. Seuss would enjoy it substantially more than I did...

And now: I am waiting for WALL-E.

I must be missing something, I have 2 of the same bets but the "Currently Worth" figures are based on 2 different percentages. Why is that?

owl1,

I have the same thing man, and I suppose the reason is based upon the difference in the size of the bet, thus selling one would effect the price more than the other. THis is ONLY a guess, but since I have the same thing but based upon several different amounts, I am assuming this is the reason.
Example, a bet of $250 would effect the market much less then a bet of $1,250, therefore, they are saying that you will swing the market more with the $1,250 bet and thus will give you less IF you sell it, do to the fact that in theory, you could bet $1,250, then bet $250 and the rise of just a few percentage points could allow you to sell the $1,250 for lets guess at $1,700, thus making you profitable by your own betting and thus gaming the system.
Does anyone think this is a possible reason for the difference in percentages offered?

Just my 2 cents worth,

lucidstates
P.S. I am sooooo looking forward to Wall-E :-D Pixar is the best! Glad you are too Randburg :-)

To be honest people, after Horton brought in only $25 mil instead of the $29 - $30 mil that I was looking for, man was I WRONG on that one, I am leaning heavily on 2 weeks here. I know I don't expect much from the competition next week, but at the same time, I expected a week over week drop of only 35% max, from Horton, instead it got a 45% drop, that means a 40% drop next week is very likely, knocking it's box office to about $14 - $16 mil, this has me worried as the Superhero! Movie is expected to bring in $15 - $18 mil, and I expect it on the high end of that range.

And do to the plummeting US dollar, my 2 cents is now about a 1.5cents, so yeah, there's my 1.5cents worth,

lucidstates

Box Office Mojo predictions:
1 DR. SEUSS' HORTON HEARS A WHO! $18.4
2 SUPERHERO MOVIE $18.4
3 21 $16.6
4 TYLER PERRY'S MEET THE BROWNS $10.6
5 RUN FAT BOY RUN $6.4
6 STOP-LOSS $6.0
7 DRILLBIT TAYLOR $5.9
8 SHUTTER $5.2
9 10,000 B.C. $5.0
10 THE BANK JOB $3.2

Weekend Update:

FRIDAY Box Office Numbers Are In According to www.the-numbers.com:
#1 - $8.24 million - 21
#2 - $5.41 million - Horton Hears a Who
#3 - $3.58 million - Superhero! Movie
#4 - $2.48 million - Meet the Browns
#5 - $1.96 million - Shutter
#6 - $1.92 million - Drillbit Taylor
#7 - $1.77 million - Stop-Loss
#8 - $1.42 million - 10,000 BC
#9 - $1.09 million - College Road Trip
#10-$0.82 million - Run, Fat-Boy, Run

lucidstates

Certainly an interesting question, with a lot of predictions and comments. Well done, lucidstates

Rohan,

Thanks man :-D ... I am very pleased with the turnout for this question. Most of my questions get a paltry $2,500 or so average amount bet on them, but this one FAR exceeded my greatest expectations at nearly $55,000 :-D And yes, lots of comments, mostly by me ranting on and on, haha, sorry about that folks :-P

BTW, Horton officially ended its run at #1, as it was #2 this weekend bringing in an estimated $17.425 million and the #1 was "21" bringing in a whopping $23.7 million, wayyyy above expectations and causing me to lose nearly $3,000 :-( Ohh woe is meeee :-( Hehehe, but I'll rcover man, I soooo will............ I hope :-P

lucidstates

Sorry folks, I am trying to get hubdub to settle this one as it is obvious that this question is now answered at "1st and 2nd Weekend of Release at #1" as it is in second place in it's 3rd weekend, so it did only go 2 weekends at #1.
Again, sorry for the delay, I've sent 2 settlement requests in since 1pm yesterday.
Thanks ALLLLLL who bet and commented during this very active question.... It's been great fun :-D

lucidstates

I think I heard a What, Love Horton