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How many earthquakes 5.0 and above will occur from Friday 21st March to Thursday 27th March (Worldwide)?

Settled as 21-25

19 in the last 7 days.

This will suspend a day before the settlement date for more excitement


Settlement details: As reported by http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

0-5
2%
6-10
3%
11-15
0%
16-20
28%
21-25
47%
More than 25
20%
Activity: H$42,906
Settled as 21-25 on Thu 27th Mar 2008 6:22pm PDT

Suspend date: Wed 26th Mar 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Thu 27th Mar 2008 6:22pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 26th Mar 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 0-5: 10%, 6-10: 20%, 11-15: 25%, 16-20: 20%, 21-25: 15%, More than 25: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 20th Mar 2008 5:58am PDT by rohan
Clarified Thu 20th Mar 2008 12:58pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Market lasts for 7 days.
Suspended Wed 26th Mar 2008 5am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Thu 27th Mar 2008 5:52pm PDT by gingerboi: 23!
Settled as '21-25' Thu 27th Mar 2008 6:22pm PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 26th Mar 2008 5am PDT Settlement date: Thu 27th Mar 2008 6:22pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 26th Mar 2008 5am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (130)

130 predictions

41 weeks ago
rohan predicted More than 25 (H$100 at 18%)
41 weeks ago
konrad predicted 21-25 (H$50 at 49%)
41 weeks ago
questmaster predicted 21-25 (H$50 at 42%)
41 weeks ago
iliketowin predicted More than 25 (H$20 at 23%)
41 weeks ago
iliketowin predicted 0-5 (H$20 at 2%)
more

Comments (18)

  1 shadowfax
hoping this market is for 7 days, through thursday, not "to" thurs.
thanks for creating it.
posted 42 weeks ago
  2 rohan
Yup, includes thursdays 'quakes
posted 42 weeks ago
10 now and not finished day 2
posted 41 weeks ago
  4 shadowfax
realize i am an imbecile for that first comment. "to" means up to and including.
exciting to me counting these quakes. would love to see more of these of all stripes and parameters.
posted 41 weeks ago
  5 melmel07
why does it suspend at 4am on wednesday? what time PST will it settle, midnight at the end of thursday? could we extend the suspend date to allow bets all day wednesday, then suspend for all of thursday?
posted 41 weeks ago
  6 shadowfax
I believe the creator intended that to increase the suspense and excitement, see subtitle.
the quake questions are settled by the count on this site:

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

which I believe is Coordinated Universal Time (UTC)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/utc.html

I hope you like these questions, I think they are great!
some say it's like watching paint dry, but I get my jollys where I want.
after the Suspend date: Wednesday 4am PST
I'll be biting nails and checking in on the count.
posted 41 weeks ago
shadowfax it's sad to say but these sites are part of my daily routine. i happened to sit down one day and the was a huge red square in the indian ocean. (earthquakes that are in red are less than an hour old). i was probably aware of the impending tsunami before most of the countries that were affected. since then i have been following the efforts around the world to better the emergency alerts systems
posted 41 weeks ago
  8 shadowfax
That is remarkable meanderingsearcher. was that the 26 Dec. 2004 Sumatra Quake? thanks to the exposure here,I will be looking for the big red one coming sometime in this life. that is, if I live out my estimated life-span. oops, I read my comment (#6) and realize it might sound like I enjoy earthquakes. which is as far from the facts, the truth as possible. I am in awe, awe struck. ever since Oct. 1989 while living in Walnut Creek, Ca. being in that quake changed the course of my life immensely. Seeing first hand the freeway that collapsed in Oakland. burned in my brain for the rest of my life.
could have used a better word to describe my interest and captivation. I have a few HD on this outcome being
16-20 so here's to hopin' few if any more will erupt above M5.
now next week, we'll see what the odds are at :-)
posted 41 weeks ago
my interest was born out of sitting in a pickup truck and looking at a f5 tornado
posted 41 weeks ago
  10 shadowfax
that sounds reverent. I have only seen a small tornado off in the distance.

now, it has been advised that I look into my addiction here in hubdubland, thanks.
I conclude I gotta layoff for a few because I found a word missing on this page that we all frequent.

http://www.hubdub.com/e/MarketOption/1620_9611/Open

in the upper right box "how does this work?" can ya find what word is missing?
must've been in the grips, the wagering spell, dazed and somehow caught it. why I was reading the instructions probably indicates how bad my addiction is.
made me realize I need to walk away from the pipe- 'er, the screen...sigh...shiver...
so, for now I spare you my blithering babble and hope to return someday with more pithy posts.
posted 41 weeks ago
shadow, shadow, shadow- we're all addicted, there could be worst addictions to play with.........remember 4d tried to tale a break and was having fits and foaming at the mouth... no wait... that's was before he quit lol i only googled hubdudland to see what would come up. i have found that this site has broadened my horizons in many ways as for "pithy posts" well i have to leave that one alone or i might a spanking from admin. for being inappropriate .you know "woodie and fill in the blank"
posted 41 weeks ago
  12 shadowfax
thanks meander, i needed that. grateful for your lead, it was an interesting word to google. wonder how many results there will be for hubdubland by may? hey, there is a potential market!
yes, this has expanded my view as well.
this is not a pithy post, but won't shy from that spanking.
watch for more earthquake markets as i have the approval from the ingenious creators.
hope to establish reasonable researched odds.
posted 41 weeks ago
  13 shadowfax
oh yea, the missisng word is "how" i got it right here. up for grabs.
"prediction and therefore much you.."
posted 41 weeks ago
  14 rohan
19 on update time = Wed Mar 26 16:00:04 UTC 2008
posted 41 weeks ago
  15 hubdubbob
More than 20, and I am out of the money. Need more days like the 23rd and 25th.
posted 41 weeks ago
  16 rohan
21 on Update time = Thu Mar 27 5:36:36 UTC 2008
posted 41 weeks ago
  17 gingerboi
22 on Update time = Thu Mar 27 17:26:03 UTC 2008.
posted 41 weeks ago
  18 melmel07
Ahh 25 right now! No more earthquakes today pleaasee =)

posted 41 weeks ago

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