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How many results will a Google search for 'Switchy McSwitchenstein' yield by the end of April 2008?

Voided

Too easy to game; results differ by user; Google search questions now banned (Rule 2.2.5)

Background:

A search for 'Switchy McSwitchenstein' currently yields one result. If it to become a viral internet meme it will have to yield a lot more than that...
 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

0 result
20%
1 result
30%
2-10 results
20%
11-100 results
15%
101-1000 results
10%
1000+ results
5%
Voided Fri 14th Mar 6:41am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream Google.

Suspend date: Thu 1st May 12:59am PDT

Initial likelihoods: 0 result: 20%, 1 result: 30%, 2-10 results: 20%, 11-100 results: 15%, 101-1000 results: 10%, 1000+ results: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th Feb 3:26pm PST by sjberwick
Edited Wed 5th Mar 1:52pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Voided Fri 14th Mar 6:41am PDT by lesley[Admin]: Too easy to game; results differ by user; Google search questions now banned (Rule 2.2.5)
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream Google.... read all

 

Predictions (62)

62 predictions

25 weeks ago
fortune_teller predicted 11-100 results (H$20 at 22%)
25 weeks ago
fortune_teller predicted 101-1000 results (H$50 at 54%)
25 weeks ago
arnos predicted 101-1000 results (H$100 at 52%)
25 weeks ago
wuntvor predicted 1000+ results (H$50 at 30%)
25 weeks ago
wuntvor predicted 101-1000 results (H$100 at 32%)
more

Comments (9)

Really?
posted 29 weeks ago
  2 destry[Admin]
Already 5 results when searched on google. This will be way over 1000 by the time this question is settled.
posted 28 weeks ago
Problem with this type of question is that I could just make my own website mention the text on multiple pages to impact the result. Not sure if thats a reason to void the question, but I'll flag it just to be sure someone reviews it.
posted 28 weeks ago
  4 destry[Admin]
All that effort would change the results by one or two not by the hundreds and thousands. The only way that would happen is if the term is picked up nationally, which seems to be occuring with the term being used on alot of Apple forums.
posted 28 weeks ago
  5 acidcj
Wow, 15 already.
posted 27 weeks ago
  6 shadowfax
currently 65...
posted 25 weeks ago
  7 lesley[Admin]
We're introducing new rules shortly, one of which will actually ban this type of question. We'll leave it up to the users as to whether the new rule should be used to retroactively void this question. This will be done through our customer satisfaction forum: www.getsatisfaction.com/hubdub within the next couple of days.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 25 weeks ago
See: <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_a_Google_search_onHubdub_return_over_66500_results_by_the_suspend_date_2466">Will a Google search on"Hubdub" return over 66500 results by the suspend date?</a>
posted 25 weeks ago
Check this out: http://openpredictionmarkets.org/blogs/greggles
I found this from Googling "Switchy McSwitchenstein". It gives this very question as an example of an easily gamed question by the many in prediction markets. I only get 12 results (not 65), so I'm leaning in the "void" direction on this one.
posted 25 weeks ago

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