Created Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:26pm PST by

sjberwick Level 6, Player (H$2,177)

How many results will a Google search for 'Switchy McSwitchenstein' yield by the end of April 2008?

Voided

Too easy to game; results differ by user; Google search questions now banned (Rule 2.2.5)

Background:

Background: A search for 'Switchy McSwitchenstein' currently yields one result. If it to become a viral internet meme it will have to yield a lot more than that...

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream Google.

Forecast history %

0 result

20%

1 result

30%

2-10 results

20%

11-100 results

15%

101-1000 results

10%

1000+ results

Voided Fri 14th Mar 2008 5:41am PST

Activity: H$25,838
Predictions: 62
Comments: 9

Suspend date: Wed 30th Apr 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: 0 result: 20%, 1 result: 30%, 2-10 results: 20%, 11-100 results: 15%, 101-1000 results: 10%, 1000+ results: 5%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:26pm PST by

sjberwick Level 6, Player (H$2,177)

Edited Wed 5th Mar 2008 1:52pm PST by

nigeleccles [Admin]

Voided Fri 14th Mar 2008 5:41am PST by

lesley [Admin]

: Too easy to game; results differ by user; Google search questions now banned (Rule 2.2.5)

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Suspend date: Wed 30th Apr 2008 11:59pm PST details

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Predictions (62)

1 year ago

fortune_teller Level 9, Expert (H$8,694)

predicted 11-100 results (H$20 at 22%)

1 year ago

fortune_teller Level 9, Expert (H$8,694)

predicted 101-1000 results (H$50 at 54%)

1 year ago

arnos

predicted 101-1000 results (H$100 at 52%)

1 year ago

wuntvor Level 5, Predictor (H$1,993)

predicted 1000+ results (H$50 at 30%)

1 year ago

wuntvor Level 5, Predictor (H$1,993)

predicted 101-1000 results (H$100 at 32%)

Comments (9)

theonecalledmichael Level 15, Seer (H$310,499)

Really?

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

Already 5 results when searched on google. This will be way over 1000 by the time this question is settled.

posted 1 year ago

bostongraf Level 14, Prophet (H$211,098)

Problem with this type of question is that I could just make my own website mention the text on multiple pages to impact the result. Not sure if thats a reason to void the question, but I'll flag it just to be sure someone reviews it.

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

All that effort would change the results by one or two not by the hundreds and thousands. The only way that would happen is if the term is picked up nationally, which seems to be occuring with the term being used on alot of Apple forums.

posted 1 year ago

acidcj Level 6, Player (H$2,621)

Wow, 15 already.

posted 1 year ago

shadowfax Level 13, Psychic (H$60,634)

currently 65...

posted 1 year ago

lesley [Admin]

We're introducing new rules shortly, one of which will actually ban this type of question. We'll leave it up to the users as to whether the new rule should be used to retroactively void this question. This will be done through our customer satisfaction forum: www.getsatisfaction.com/hubdub within the next couple of days.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

posted 1 year ago

newswrangler [Power User]

See: <a href="http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_a_Google_search_onHubdub_return_over_66500_results_by_the_suspend_date_2466">Will a Google search on"Hubdub" return over 66500 results by the suspend date?</a>

posted 1 year ago

infernalmachine [Power User]

Check this out: http://openpredictionmarkets.org/blogs/greggles
I found this from Googling "Switchy McSwitchenstein". It gives this very question as an example of an easily gamed question by the many in prediction markets. I only get 12 results (not 65), so I'm leaning in the "void" direction on this one.

posted 1 year ago