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How many shark attacks will there be in Florida between March 7 and September 7, 2008?

Current forecast: 20 or more (83% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 20 or more with a probability of 83% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
Forecast history, %
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Less than 5
2%
6-10
1%
11-19
13%
20 or more
83%
Activity: H$32,697
Question suspends in 3 days
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: this Monday 12:59am PDT (3 days to go)

Initial likelihoods: Less than 5: 25%, 6-10: 25%, 11-19: 25%, 20 or more: 25%

Action history:

Created Thu 6th Mar 10:33am PST by monkiss
Edited Tue 11th Mar 1:42am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Edited Tue 11th Mar 2:14am PDT by diana
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (50)

50 predictions

1 day ago
techrecruiter2010 predicted 11-19 (H$100 at 11%)
1 day ago
bigken1 predicted 20 or more (H$700 at 91%)
1 day ago
bigken1 predicted 20 or more (H$700 at 92%)
2 days ago
bigken1 predicted 20 or more (H$1,000 at 89%)
6 days ago
gilliganp predicted 20 or more (H$2,000 at 91%)
more

Comments (1)

I am not sure what site is going to be used for settlement. But there has already been 18 (17 since march 7) in Volusia County alone according to
http://www.news-journalonline.com/special/sharkattacks/

Another site has a pretty good map to view locations of shark attacks around the world.
http://swimatyourownrisk.com/
posted 6 days ago

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