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How many times will the Olympic torch be extinguished by protesters during the torch relay? (while outside China only)

Settled as None

Torch relay will be held from March 25 until May 3. How many times the torch flame will be extinguished BY PROTESTERS? (will not count if extinguished by the country authorities, such as what happened in Paris, France - see CNN.com at http://tinyurl.com/4g9sat )


Settlement details: To set the number of times only the incidents OUTSIDE the mainland China will be considered. Number will be counted only when the flame is extinguished by a protester itself - not by authorities. Torch relay will take place from April 2 (Almaty/Kazakhstan) until May 3 (Macau/Special Administrative Region).
As reported by a major mainstream news source. As for a second source, http://www.freetibet.org/ maybe considerated also.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

None
98%
From 1-3 times
1%
From 4-6 times
0%
From 7-10 times
0%
From 11-15 times
0%
More than 16 times
0%
Activity: H$22,399
Settled as None on Wed 7th May 2008 3:27pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 3rd May 2008 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 7th May 2008 3:27pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 3rd May 2008 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: None: 10%, From 1-3 times: 25%, From 4-6 times: 25%, From 7-10 times: 20%, From 11-15 times: 15%, More than 16 times: 5%

Action history:

Created Mon 7th Apr 2008 12:50pm PDT by aventura
Edited Mon 7th Apr 2008 2:33pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Mon 7th Apr 2008 3:11pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Tue 8th Apr 2008 11:22am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Sat 3rd May 2008 4:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'None' Wed 7th May 2008 3:27pm PDT by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Sat 3rd May 2008 4:59pm PDT Settlement date: Wed 7th May 2008 3:27pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 3rd May 2008 4:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (57)

57 predictions

35 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted From 1-3 times (H$10 at 1%)
36 weeks ago
antagonist predicted From 1-3 times (H$100 at 3%)
36 weeks ago
interviewer predicted None (H$300 at 98%)
36 weeks ago
whtimo predicted None (H$447 at 91%)
36 weeks ago
kismet predicted None (H$282 at 89%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 randburg
Put **BY PROTESTERS** in the prediction title! Otherwise this prediction is misleading, until you read further and carefully...
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
in Paris it has been the chinese representative who directed the abortion.
"Chinese organizers finally gave up on the relay, canceling the last third of what China had hoped would be a joyous jog by torch-bearing VIPs past some of Paris' most famous landmarks."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080407/ap_on_re_eu/olympic_torch
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 ladylara
Go, protesters!! From "One Against China"
posted 39 weeks ago
  4 lesley[Admin]
I suspect this one will be tricky to settle unless someone can find one source which says "The torch has been extinguished x times on its journey to China" (or words to that effect). Any suggestions?

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 39 weeks ago
This need not be difficult to settle -- it's just like the "how many times will x-politician say a word during a debate" questions.

HD should arrange for a Category Editor to accompany the torch relay around the world (excluding China). First class airfare is necessary, four-star hotels, chauffeured car, modest clothing allowance in order to be appropriate in all cultures, full media and security credentials, generous per diem allowance, and of course, one of those .99 cent/pence plastic "counter/clickers".

The only "tricky" part is finding a Category Manager willing to go.
posted 39 weeks ago
I VOLUNTEER!!!
posted 39 weeks ago
  7 rohan
No can do: I'm willing to pay $$( i mean, H$$). And I have more than you, so.....
posted 39 weeks ago
  8 randburg
Right ON, newswrangler!!
posted 39 weeks ago
  9 lesley[Admin]
We will not be counting the number of times it is extinguised. If a mainstream media source does, or if the free tibet website reports it, then this question will be settled. If they do not report it, then it will be voided. Fair?

Lesley.
posted 38 weeks ago
  10 epicur
Lesley - They may not report that it was not extinguished. That is non-news. The selection of none is worthless with the method you outlined. It should be that if it is not reported, then it is none.
posted 37 weeks ago
  11 lesley[Admin]
Yes, of course you're right epicur. So, if nothing is reported on this, it will be settled as None.
posted 37 weeks ago

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