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Created Tue 29th Jan 2008 1:18pm PST by kcgw85
All questions » Politics » 

How many total military casualties will there be in Feb. 2008 due to the Iraq war?

Settled as 22-32

http://icasualties.org/oif/

Background:

This website (http://icasualties.org/oif/) lists total casualties by day for US, UK and other forces fighting in Iraq Coalition. So far in January there have been 36, In December there were 24, and in November there were 40.


Settlement details: As reported by Iraq Coalition Casualties. (http://icasualties.org/oif/)

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

33 or more
2%
22-32
96%
11-21
2%
10 or less
0%
Activity: H$15,425
Settled as 22-32 on Sun 2nd Mar 2008 4:50am PST

Suspend date: Sat 1st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 2nd Mar 2008 4:50am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 1st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: 33 or more: 50%, 22-32: 40%, 11-21: 5%, 10 or less: 5%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jan 2008 1:18pm PST by kcgw85
Suspended Sat 1st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settled as '22-32' Sun 2nd Mar 2008 4:50am PST by ryanj[Admin]: http://icasualties.org/oif/

Suspend date: Sat 1st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST Settlement date: Sun 2nd Mar 2008 4:50am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 1st Mar 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (65)

65 predictions

44 weeks ago
quicksilver predicted 33 or more (H$20 at 2%)
44 weeks ago
quicksilver predicted 11-21 (H$50 at 1%)
44 weeks ago
oystein predicted 33 or more (H$50 at 5%)
44 weeks ago
oystein predicted 33 or more (H$50 at 3%)
44 weeks ago
oystein predicted 10 or less (H$20 at 0%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
This question will be settled after February, as the Pentagon doesn't always release reports right after casualties occur.
posted 49 weeks ago
  2 huffmanm
Since the war began in 2003, there have been 2 months with under 33 casualities. In other words, 3.5 PERCENT of the months have had less than 33 casualties. Check for yourself at the above link. Granted, the surge has been working, but I just don't know if its likely there will be a dramatic decrease. The last 4 febuarys have had the following casualties: 2007 - 85; 2006 - 58; 2005 - 60; 2004 - 23 (which was one of the two months with less than 33 casualties).
posted 49 weeks ago
  3 markov
I'm dumping out of this one since the only figures that are half credible are from the U.S. military and that does not appear to be the determining source of information.
posted 48 weeks ago
  4 historyteacher
By casualties do you mean coalition deaths? Historically the phrase casualties has meant killed and wounded. If you mean killed and wounded than the 33 or more has already been reached.
posted 47 weeks ago

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