Created Sat 8th Mar 9pm PST by

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How much will " Horton Hears a Who " earn in its opening weekend?

Settled as $36 million to $45 million

Thanks for the clear settlement guidelines in the background details Lucidstates. Figure on the-numbers is $45.1 million.

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/thisweek.php

Background:

This question is, how much do you think the new Jim Carrey CG animated movie "Horton Hears a Who" make in its first three days at the North America Box Office (March 14, 15th, and 16th, 2008.)? Predictions settles as such: If for example it earns $35.999 million, then the "$25 million to $35 million" WILL WIN, not the "$36 million to $45 million". It must at least reach $36 million even, in order for "$36 million to $45 million" prediction to win.

Settlement details: As reported by www.the-numbers.com.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

$25 million or Less...

10%

$26 million to $35 million

34%

$36 million to $45 million

18%

$46 million to $55 million

11%

$56 million or More...

28%

Activity: H$22,406

Settled as $36 million to $45 million on Sun 16th Mar 2:39pm PDT

Suspend date: Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 16th Mar 2:39pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: $25 million or Less...: 2%, $26 million to $35 million: 28%, $36 million to $45 million: 37%, $46 million to $55 million: 28%, $56 million or More...: 5%

Action history:

Created Sat 8th Mar 9pm PST by

lucidstates

Suspended Sat 15th Mar 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settled as '$36 million to $45 million' Sun 16th Mar 2:39pm PDT by

tisha

: Thanks for the clear settlement guidelines in the background details Lucidstates. Figure on the-numbers is $45.1 million.

http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/thisweek.php

Clarified Mon 17th Mar 1:48am PDT by

tisha

: 3-day figures are already out.

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Predictions (118)

118 predictions

37 weeks ago

grayentropy predicted $26 million to $35 million (H$50 at 36%)

37 weeks ago

rohan predicted $25 million or Less... (H$100 at 9%)

37 weeks ago

monkeynacho predicted $25 million or Less... (H$100 at 5%)

37 weeks ago

buckeyetom predicted $46 million to $55 million (H$50 at 14%)

37 weeks ago

dieseldog predicted $36 million to $45 million (H$50 at 21%)

Comments (9)

lucidstates

WOW. this question has been WAYYY more competitive then I'd thought it would be. Awesome! I love seeing people getting all into this game, hubdub, makes it so much fun :-D
I figured nearly everyone would pick a certain range, but 3 of those ares still soooo close :-D
Thanks for betting :-D

lucidstates

posted 37 weeks ago

ironman288

they spent a lot advertising this movie, but i really wish they would leave Dr. Suess alone. He's always been my favorite and these movies are always awful...

I can't help but notice the return on a bet for under 25 million right now, coupled with the nicest weather on months and a 21 million dollar drop between the two previous Suess movies...

posted 37 weeks ago

lucidstates

To be dead honest, though I have not bet on this question (look at my profile, no bets on this Q), hehe YES I am too unsure of the outcome, but my guesstimate is for $41 million to $47.5 million this weekend. Now I could and probably will be dead wrong, but I think this will start out HUGE, and drop off quicker then HTGSC, but I think it'll do WAYYY better long term the TCITH.
Truthfully, I could see this film hitting $165 million - $190 million by the end of its run. Now I haven't seen it, so I dunno, but seems like it'll be big.

lucidstates

posted 37 weeks ago

randburg

At last: lucidstates hears a WHO?

posted 37 weeks ago

lucidstates

Update: Horton takes the GOLD!!!
In it's first 24 hours of release, Horton Hears a Who has way outdone the other films in release, coming in at $13.21 million. The #2 film, 10,000 BC had just $5.7 million on Friday and the other new releases Never Back Down and Doomsday brought in dismal revenues at $3.09 million and $1.754 million respectively.

So what does this mean? Well, history says that Friday is usually about 15% behind Saturday, and Sunday should be about 10% behind Friday, So this means that Horton should end up with between $37 million on the low end and about $41 million on the upper end. Though it could do way better, I see this is a very likely range and personally I think my original guesstimate looks like it may be right at $41 million but WAYYYYYY WRONG at the high end of $47.5 million. So I might barely squeak our a victory on my guessing game, I just didn't have the guts to bet on my own question, which now I regret, hahaha, I soooo shoulda bet $36 - $45, but alas, my cowardice won out and I've lost the chance to make some mula :-D

lucidstates

posted 37 weeks ago

lucidstates

OOPS I mispoke, it should bring in $39 - $43 million :-D

lucidstates

posted 37 weeks ago

rohan

I have money on 36-45

posted 37 weeks ago