Created Fri 25th Apr 6:39pm PDT by

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How much will " Iron Man " earn in its opening weekend?

Settled as $81 million or More...

Weekend estimates are already at the 100 million mark, so I'm settling this now.

Background:

This question is, how much do you think the new big budget superhero movie "Iron Man" will make in its first three days at the North America Box Office (May 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, 2008.)? Predictions settle as such: If for example it earns $60.999 million, then the "$51 million to $60 million" WILL WIN, not the "$61 million to $70 million". It must at least reach $61 million even, in order for "$61 million to $70 million" prediction to win. ... Remember Folks, basically the "Summer Box Office Season" Kicks Off with Iron Man :-)

Settlement details: As reported by www.the-numbers.com or some other major mainstream news source.

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

$50 million or Less...

12%

$51 million to $60 million

24%

$61 million to $70 million

28%

$71 million to $80 million

23%

$81 million or More...

13%

Activity: H$23,667

Settled as $81 million or More... on Mon 5th May 12:49am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 2nd May 9am PDT Settlement date: Mon 5th May 12:49am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 2nd May 9am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: $50 million or Less...: 7%, $51 million to $60 million: 27%, $61 million to $70 million: 31%, $71 million to $80 million: 30%, $81 million or More...: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 25th Apr 6:39pm PDT by

lucidstates

Suspended Fri 2nd May 9am PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Sun 4th May 1:08pm PDT by

raneym: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080504/ap_en_mo/box_office

Settled as '$81 million or More...' Mon 5th May 12:49am PDT by

tisha

: Weekend estimates are already at the 100 million mark, so I'm settling this now.

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Predictions (125)

125 predictions

30 weeks ago

vigilante9801 predicted $71 million to $80 million (H$6 at 22%)

30 weeks ago

vigilante9801 predicted $51 million to $60 million (H$7 at 24%)

30 weeks ago

vigilante9801 predicted $61 million to $70 million (H$7 at 29%)

30 weeks ago

chuck predicted $50 million or Less... (H$10 at 12%)

30 weeks ago

kismet predicted $61 million to $70 million (H$50 at 28%)

Comments (7)

mrperfkt [Admin]

Not to influence wagering at all, but thought this was an interesting related story.... :)

http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/04/30/grand.theft.auto/index.html

posted 30 weeks ago

lucidstates

Nice find mrperfkt :-D ... Thanks :-)

posted 30 weeks ago

lucidstates

Thanks everyone for betting, this promises to be a wild weekend!

posted 30 weeks ago

lucidstates

MY GOSH Folks! When I am wrong.... I AM FREAKIN WRONGGGGG!!! Hahahahaha

Wow, Iron Man opened to potentially a top 10 EVER opening weekend!!!

Here are Thursday Preview + Fridays estimates:
#1 ... $39.600 million ... "Iron Man" (Thursday night previews brought in $5.1 million and Friday brought in $34.5 million)
#2 ..... $5.372 million ... "Made of Honor"... ($5.372 million in Total)
#3 ..... $3.370 million ... Baby Mama...................... ($25.367 million in Total)
#4 ..... $2.212 million ... Harold & Kumar 2.............. ($21.467 million in Total)
#5 ..... $1.883 million ... Forgetting Sarah Marshall.. ($40.555 million in Total)
#6 ..... $1.217 million ... Forbidden Kingdom............ ($42.122 million in Total)
#7 ..... $0.819 million ... Prom Night....................... ($39.766 million in Total)
#8 ..... $0.673 million ... Nim's Island...................... ($40.467 million in Total)
#9 ..... $0.656 million ... 21.................................... ($77.613 million in Total)
#10.... $0.444 million ... 88 Minutes........................ ($14.268 million in Total)
#11.... $0.339 million ... Horton Hears a Who........... ($148.819 million in Total)
#12.... $0.266 million ... Deception......................... ($3.383 million in Total)

So, it looks like Iron Man could possibly top $90 - $100 million this weekend!
Now remember, this question is for MAY 2ND, 3RD and 4TH, so the previews on Thursday do NOT count towards the box office numbers for the Settlement of THIS question, as is made clear int he description above, therefore, IF it's final 3 day weekend is MORE than $81 million NOT counting the $5.1 million for Thursday, then the "$71 million to $80 million" or whatever it makes, would win, BUT if it tops $81 million for FRIDAY, SATURDAY and SUNDAY, then the "$81 million or More" will Win.

lucidstates

posted 30 weeks ago

circuitfire

I expected it to open well, but DAMN! And after seeing it, it is very well deserving of the win, I'll trade a $H loss every weekend if I get to see a movie like that.

posted 30 weeks ago

raneym

$100 Million+

posted 30 weeks ago

scott

Happy to lose this one cause I got it for the top of the year contest.... amazing openening.

Iron Man grossed $100.8 million, per studio estimates compiled Sunday by Exhibitor Relations Co., a number that makes the Robert Downey Jr. film second only to Spider-Man for comic book movie debuts.

The estimate does not include the movie's Thursday night sneaks. If it did, it'd be $3.5 million higher.

The estimate also doesn't include overseas ticket sales. If it did, it'd be nearly $100 million higher.

In all, by the close of business tonight, Iron Man is predicted to have taken in $104.3 million domestically and $201 million worldwide, or more than the entire global runs of Daredevil and Catwoman. Give it a few days or so, and it'll move past Batman & Robin and Ghost Rider on the all-time comic book movie list, as compiled by Box Office Mojo.

posted 30 weeks ago