How well can the Hubdub community predict the behaviour of the world markets next week?

Head.........hurts.........

= )

=42

I was worried that I'd be blamed for creating HubDerivatives! No chance of that now 8^)

Do you work in structured finance or something similar; Infernalmachine?

No. Nothing to do with finance at all. I'm a poet.

@anaverageamerican No, no, they're your creation. I had a credit as such in the background text, but I had to keep cutting stuff because there's a 2048 character limit on the text box. So I hereby announce: Credit for the original idea behind this question goes to anaverageamerican!

I'm interested in feedback on this method of "scoring" a question. I think it might be useful to have a standard way to measure our performance as predictors, not just for derivative questions, but as a way of rating past performance.. Settled questions could be given a score, and events like the Olympics, Oscars, etc, could be assessed on average.

I like the formula here for its relative simplicity ;-) and the way it scores the expected value of random choosing at zero. But it is only symmetrical about zero for the 2-choice questions. Also, it doesn't really distinguish between "flip a coin" type questions and one's where there are clear favourite choices (and long shots).

If we could work toward a standard scoring system, then we'd have a standard approach for HubDerivatives(c), which would make questions like this one easier to understand, and simpler to settle.

Ok. I think I finally got the idea of Hubderivatives, and I like it, I think.

Just don't start marketing and junk bonds ok. ;)

Infernalmachine - I'll try and get my head around your scoring system.

Having a standard scoring system - although it sounds like a good idea, imposing it is another matter

@InfernalMachine, okay I'll accept the blame/credit for HubDerivatives. And thanks for taking it to (yet) another level. It was always about promoting the community's ability to correctly predict events, not personal gain (as evidenced by the fact that my 13 year old son, Skipper, is trouncing me ... I claim he has more time 8^).

@donal, it's easy to impose a standard. Just ask Microsoft to include in the next service pack for Vista ;^)

@InfernalMachine are you _really_ a poet? In the sense that writing poetry is what you do for a living? If so why aren't all your comments in verse? 8^) Is writing poetry a job, like I show up in my cubicle every day, or is it more freelance, like writing a novel?

Inquiring minds want to know. If you don't respond in these comments in a day or two I might just be tempted to turn this into a question on Hubdub ... "Is InfernalMachine _really_ a professional poet? As reported by HD user InfernalMachine". Just kidding! (about the HD question that is)

and the odds are ............

I could tell you, but then I'd have to flag your question.

Hi. It's Monday after the markets all closed and the question was settled for Monday as 0-2, which had 80% of the market. So by the magic formula you get a score of 5/4*80-25 = 100-25 = 75. So the first day score is 75. But it was only because all the Asian markets were down and the European ones were also all down just before closing (and the Americas started in the red) that "0-2" got 80% of wagered money, so I'm guessing that a score of 75 is not going to be repeated every day (8 markets are still open when the daily 12-index question suspends)

Day 1: Correct odds:80% Score:75
Day 2: Correct odds:80% Score:75
Day 3: Correct odds:53% Score:41.25

Day 4: Correct odds:74% Score:67.5

Sum of Score over 4 days:258.75