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How well can the Hubdub community predict the behaviour of the world markets next week?

Settled as We must be collective geniuses (Avg Score: greater than 50.00)

Well done all. One point to the Hubdubbers. Null point to Walt Mossberg who told us you were all a bunch of faceless nobodies (direct quote).

Background:

Consider this method of measuring how well we predict the future on a given Hubdub question. After it's settled, take the correct answer's final odds and subtract from that the average of all the wrong answers' odds.

I asked the following 5 questions:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_of_the_following_12_Indices_will_close_UP_on_Mon_Mar_3_3319/view
(See Settlement Rules for links to other 4)

For each question, we score it by subtracting the average odds of the wrong answers from the odds of the right answer. Because the odds add to 100 and there are 4 wrong answers out of 5 choices, you can derive that the score S = 5/4 *cOdds -25 (where cOdds is the final odds of the correct answer). If the cOdds is 0% then S = -25, if 20% (as if we all threw a five-sided dice to make a pick) then S=0, and if 100% then S=100.

Take the average of these 5 scores (between -25 and 100, as is the average). Use the odds from the graph and the formula for S above. What's this value going to be?


Settlement details: Remaining 4 questions:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_of_the_following_12_Indices_will_close_UP_on_Tue_Mar_4_3320/view
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_of_the_following_12_Indices_will_close_UP_on_Wed_Mar_5_3321/view
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_of_the_following_12_Indices_will_close_UP_on_Thurs_Mar_6_3322/view
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/How_many_of_the_following_12_Indices_will_close_UP_on_Fri_Mar_7_3323/view

When all 5 questions have been settled, the correctness score can be taken for each as follows: take the final odds "F" of the correct answer from the bar graph. Score "S" is given by S = (5/4)*F - 25
Finally take the average of these five scores. The scores and their average will each be in the range -25.00 to 100.00 (The scores and averages can be expressed EXACTLY to two decimal places.) The average is used to answer THIS question.

As judged by the HD editor/admin using above method.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Random or worse (Avg Score: -25.00 - 0.00)
1%
Just better than random (Avg Score: 0.01 - 15.00)
1%
Much better than random (Avg Score: 15.01 - 50.00)
4%
We must be collective geniuses (Avg Score: greater than 50.00)
95%
Activity: H$44,279
Settled as We must be collective geniuses (Avg Score: greater than 50.00) on Fri 7th Mar 2:32pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 7th Mar 12pm PST Settlement date: Fri 7th Mar 2:32pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Mar 12pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Random or worse (Avg Score: -25.00 - 0.00): 20%, Just better than random (Avg Score: 0.01 - 15.00): 30%, Much better than random (Avg Score: 15.01 - 50.00): 30%, We must be collective geniuses (Avg Score: greater than 50.00): 20%

Action history:

Created Thu 28th Feb 3:50am PST by infernalmachine[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:38pm PST by tomg[Admin]
Suspended Fri 7th Mar 12pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Fri 7th Mar 1:45pm PST by pics4d: todays score was 38.75 plus the last four days (258.75) makes 297.5 for an average score of 59.5...collective geniuses
Settlement requested Fri 7th Mar 2:09pm PST by infernalmachine[Admin]: Agreed.
Day 1: Correct odds:80% Score:75
Day 2: Correct odds:80% Score:75
Day 3: Correct odds:53% Score:41.25
Day 4: Correct odds:74% Score:67.5
Day 5: Correct odds:51% Score:38.75
Sum of 5 scores: 297.5
Avg. Score:59.5 so "collective geniuses" (greater than 50) wins.
Settled as 'We must be collective geniuses (Avg Score: greater than 50.00)' Fri 7th Mar 2:32pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: Well done all. One point to the Hubdubbers. Null point to Walt Mossberg who told us you were all a bunch of faceless nobodies (direct quote).

Suspend date: Fri 7th Mar 12pm PST Settlement date: Fri 7th Mar 2:32pm PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 7th Mar 12pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (87)

87 predictions

38 weeks ago
tedium predicted We must be collective geniuses (Avg Score: greater than 50.00) (H$100 at 95%)
38 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted Random or worse (Avg Score: -25.00 - 0.00) (H$20 at 0%)
38 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted Just better than random (Avg Score: 0.01 - 15.00) (H$20 at 1%)
38 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted Much better than random (Avg Score: 15.01 - 50.00) (H$50 at 4%)
38 weeks ago
bcguelph predicted Just better than random (Avg Score: 0.01 - 15.00) (H$20 at 3%)
more

Comments (16)

  1 steph
Head.........hurts.........

= )
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 kruijs[Power User]
=42
posted 39 weeks ago
I was worried that I'd be blamed for creating HubDerivatives! No chance of that now 8^)
posted 39 weeks ago
  4 donal
Do you work in structured finance or something similar; Infernalmachine?
posted 39 weeks ago
No. Nothing to do with finance at all. I'm a poet.
posted 39 weeks ago
@anaverageamerican No, no, they're your creation. I had a credit as such in the background text, but I had to keep cutting stuff because there's a 2048 character limit on the text box. So I hereby announce: Credit for the original idea behind this question goes to anaverageamerican!

I'm interested in feedback on this method of "scoring" a question. I think it might be useful to have a standard way to measure our performance as predictors, not just for derivative questions, but as a way of rating past performance.. Settled questions could be given a score, and events like the Olympics, Oscars, etc, could be assessed on average.

I like the formula here for its relative simplicity ;-) and the way it scores the expected value of random choosing at zero. But it is only symmetrical about zero for the 2-choice questions. Also, it doesn't really distinguish between "flip a coin" type questions and one's where there are clear favourite choices (and long shots).

If we could work toward a standard scoring system, then we'd have a standard approach for HubDerivatives(c), which would make questions like this one easier to understand, and simpler to settle.
posted 39 weeks ago
Ok. I think I finally got the idea of Hubderivatives, and I like it, I think.

Just don't start marketing and junk bonds ok. ;)
posted 39 weeks ago
  8 donal
Infernalmachine - I'll try and get my head around your scoring system.

Having a standard scoring system - although it sounds like a good idea, imposing it is another matter
posted 39 weeks ago
@InfernalMachine, okay I'll accept the blame/credit for HubDerivatives. And thanks for taking it to (yet) another level. It was always about promoting the community's ability to correctly predict events, not personal gain (as evidenced by the fact that my 13 year old son, Skipper, is trouncing me ... I claim he has more time 8^).
posted 39 weeks ago
@donal, it's easy to impose a standard. Just ask Microsoft to include in the next service pack for Vista ;^)
posted 39 weeks ago
@InfernalMachine are you _really_ a poet? In the sense that writing poetry is what you do for a living? If so why aren't all your comments in verse? 8^) Is writing poetry a job, like I show up in my cubicle every day, or is it more freelance, like writing a novel?

Inquiring minds want to know. If you don't respond in these comments in a day or two I might just be tempted to turn this into a question on Hubdub ... "Is InfernalMachine _really_ a professional poet? As reported by HD user InfernalMachine". Just kidding! (about the HD question that is)
posted 39 weeks ago
and the odds are ............
posted 39 weeks ago
I could tell you, but then I'd have to flag your question.
posted 39 weeks ago
Hi. It's Monday after the markets all closed and the question was settled for Monday as 0-2, which had 80% of the market. So by the magic formula you get a score of 5/4*80-25 = 100-25 = 75. So the first day score is 75. But it was only because all the Asian markets were down and the European ones were also all down just before closing (and the Americas started in the red) that "0-2" got 80% of wagered money, so I'm guessing that a score of 75 is not going to be repeated every day (8 markets are still open when the daily 12-index question suspends)
posted 39 weeks ago
Day 1: Correct odds:80% Score:75
Day 2: Correct odds:80% Score:75
Day 3: Correct odds:53% Score:41.25
posted 38 weeks ago
Day 4: Correct odds:74% Score:67.5

Sum of Score over 4 days:258.75
posted 38 weeks ago

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