hoernla 
How will the CSU fare in the upcoming Election of the Bavarian Landtag?
CSU gets less than 50% of popular vote AND loses its seat majority in parliament, so the 5th option is correct. (Apologies for the delay, but I was trying to find an article (in English) with both the pop vote percentages and the seat totals. No such luck, but the seat totals are found in the second link [Sitze = seats])
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,581111,00.html
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,578987,00.html
Background:
Since 1962, the CSU stoutly defends a 50%+ majority. In the last elections in 2003 they gained a record-breaking 60.7%.
But things have changed since then. Legendary Ministerpräsident Edmund Stoiber had been forced out of office, and the settlement of his didn't exactly happen quietly. Also, there have recently more setbacks for Ministerpräsident Beckstein's government: the planed monorail to Munich's airport had to be cancelled, the state-owned bank BayernLB suffered very heavy losses.
But...will all this affect the Bavarian voters at all?
For recent polls see:
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source:
(http://www.spiegel.de/international/)
Or the Bavarian Statistical Office:
(http://www.statistik.bayern.de/wahlen/landtagswahlen/)
Settled
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Patrona Bavariae roots with the Conservatives....CSU >59.9% |
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There will be some losses.... 55.0-55.9% |
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There is unrest in Bavaria, but never change a winning team... 50.0-54.9% |
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The unthinkable happens, the absolute majority (at least concerning votes) is lost... CSU <50.0% |
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The world has been turned upside down....even the majority of seats has gone! Is the CSU able to find a coalition partner? Or will it even lose power? |
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Suspend date: Sun 28th Sep 9:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 12:20am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Sep 9:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Patrona Bavariae roots with the Conservatives....CSU >59.9%: 5%, There will be some losses.... 55.0-55.9%: 20%, There is unrest in Bavaria, but never change a winning team... 50.0-54.9%: 60%, The unthinkable happens, the absolute majority (at least concerning votes) is lost... CSU <50.0%: 14%, The world has been turned upside down....even the majority of seats has gone! Is the CSU able to find a coalition partner? Or will it even lose power?: 1%
Action history:
hoernla jpkoester1: http://www.landtagswahl2008.bayern.de/taba14990.html
CSU only has 92 of the 187 seats in the Bavarian Landtag. This means the absolute majority is gone. The question should be settled as "The world has been turned upside down....even the majority of seats has gone! Is the CSU able to find a coalition partner? Or will it even lose power?".
jamest: 43% for the CSU so coalition it is
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7641345.stm
joaoxxx: CSU gets 43%, loses majority of seats (according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavaria_state_election,_2008). Unsure what the settlement should be (both 4 and 5 seem correct). exilpat: Hello?
The CSU landet at 43 percent (thus the last possible answer "
The world has been turned upside down....even the majority of seats has gone! Is the CSU able to find a coalition partner? Or will it even lose power? " applies.
See
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49845cfa-8dbe-11dd-83d5-0000779fd18c.html
or
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/sep/30/germany
infernalmachine![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: CSU gets less than 50% of popular vote AND loses its seat majority in parliament, so the 5th option is correct. (Apologies for the delay, but I was trying to find an article (in English) with both the pop vote percentages and the seat totals. No such luck, but the seat totals are found in the second link [Sitze = seats])
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,581111,00.html
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,578987,00.html
Suspend date: Sun 28th Sep 9:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 30th Sep 12:20am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 28th Sep 9:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (131)
131 predictions
diskurs predicted The unthinkable happens, the absolute majority (at least concerning votes) is lost... CSU <50.0% (H$1,688 at 64%)jamest predicted There is unrest in Bavaria, but never change a winning team... 50.0-54.9% (H$100 at 31%)jpkoester1 predicted The unthinkable happens, the absolute majority (at least concerning votes) is lost... CSU <50.0% (H$20 at 54%)jamest predicted There is unrest in Bavaria, but never change a winning team... 50.0-54.9% (H$100 at 29%)jamest predicted The world has been turned upside down....even the majority of seats has gone! Is the CSU able to find a coalition partner? Or will it even lose power? (H$100 at 12%)
bernardoComments (7)
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Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
I am here referring to a specialty of the German voting system. In Bavarian elections, as in most German elections, there is a so-called 5%-exclusion, meaning that political parties not reaching 5.0% of the overall vote won't be rewarded with parliamentary seats.
The implication is: if e.g. 6% of the votes are "lost" to unsuccessful groups, you actually need >47% for a majority.
Thus, the 4th (yellow) option refers to a case in which the CSU will win less than 50.0% of the popular vote BUT still end up with a majority of seats in the Bavarian Landtag.
The 5th (light blue) options means that NOT ONLY will the CSU win less than 50.0% of the popular vote, BUT ALSO have less seats in Parliament than all other parties combined.
Example:
CSU (Conservative) 47%
SPD (Social Democrats) 23%
FDP (Liberal) 12%
Green Party 10%
Die Linke 7%
DVU 1%
Altogether 100%, but DVU gain no seat in Parliament. The other Parties will gain seats roughly according to their percentage in the popular vote, altogether 52%>CSU 47%. CSU will need a coalition partner to remain in power. (Light blue option)
BUT if DVU and Die Linke both score 4%, both won't be represented in Parliament. SPD+FDP+Greens = 45% < CSU 47%. Although having lost the absolute majority of the votes, the CSU will still have more seats than all other parties combined. (Yellow Option)
I hope this was of help. For more questions, shout at me!
J.C.Hörnla
(not final results, 6hrs after polls closed, > 90% of votes counted)
Party % Seats
2008 2003 2008 2003
CSU 43.4 60.7 92 124
SPD 18.6 19.6 39 41
GRÜNE 9.4 7.7 19 15
FW 10.2 4.0 21 0
FDP 8.0 2.6 16 0
Linke 4.3 0.0 0 0
Numbers here: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/0,1518,578987,00.html
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