Created Mon 3rd Mar 2008 8:40am PST by

If Obama is nominated, who will win the Presidency?

Voided

No option for other, which could cause the market to be voided if neither McCain nor Obama won the presidency

Background:

Background: If the pre-condition does not occur the question will be voided (as it will if none of the two outcomes occur).

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
If the pre-condition does not occur the question will be voided (as it will if none of the two outcomes occur).

Forecast history %

Obama

78%

McCain

22%

Voided Thu 19th Jun 2008 8:10am PST

Activity: H$17,886
Predictions: 84
Comments: 3

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Obama: 60%, McCain: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 3rd Mar 2008 8:40am PST by

ryanj

Edited Mon 3rd Mar 2008 9:10am PST by

ryanj

Edited Mon 3rd Mar 2008 9:12am PST by

ryanj

Edited Tue 4th Mar 2008 4:51am PST by

lesley [Admin]

Suspended Sun 1st Jun 2008 11am PST by

ryanj

: Market suspended as deliberations on settlement occur

Unsuspended Mon 2nd Jun 2008 1:49pm PST by

ryanj

Voided Thu 19th Jun 2008 8:10am PST by

ryanj

: No option for other, which could cause the market to be voided if neither McCain nor Obama won the presidency

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Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST details

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Predictions (84)

1 year ago

ozarkguy Level 12, Guru (H$40,674)

predicted McCain (H$20 at 26%)

1 year ago

jfigg01 Level 1, Newbie (H$1,000)

predicted Obama (H$100 at 74%)

1 year ago

dragon01 Level 14, Prophet (H$118,967)

predicted Obama (H$20 at 74%)

1 year ago

ozarkguy Level 12, Guru (H$40,674)

predicted McCain (H$21 at 26%)

1 year ago

ozarkguy Level 12, Guru (H$40,674)

predicted McCain (H$20 at 29%)

Comments (3)

randburg Level 19, Uberdubber (H$4,995,144)

I presume the question is: who will WIN the presidency? Thanks.

posted 1 year ago

lesley [Admin]

Edited to read "win"!

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

posted 1 year ago

destry [Admin]

What an interesting reason to void the market. Should we not have waited and voided this market if, in the incredibly unlikely event, neither one wins. I can not find any reference material on a presidential election in which one of the two major opponents didn't win. For this question to be asked with an "other" option we would had to start the other at 1%, and based on it never happening before 1% is ridiculously too high. 1% means that it will occur once every 100 times. If we use this standard for voiding questions then doesn't every single sports question need to written now to include an "other" option?

posted 1 year ago

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