Created Mon 3rd Mar 8:40am PST by

ryanj

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

If Obama is nominated, who will win the Presidency?

Voided

No option for other, which could cause the market to be voided if neither McCain nor Obama won the presidency

Background:

If the pre-condition does not occur the question will be voided (as it will if none of the two outcomes occur).

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Voided

Obama

78%

McCain

22%

Voided Thu 19th Jun 9:10am PDT

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
If the pre-condition does not occur the question will be voided (as it will if none of the two outcomes occur).

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Obama: 60%, McCain: 40%

Action history:

Created Mon 3rd Mar 8:40am PST by

ryanj

Edited Mon 3rd Mar 9:10am PST by

ryanj

Edited Mon 3rd Mar 9:12am PST by

ryanj

Edited Tue 4th Mar 4:51am PST by

lesley [Admin]

Suspended Sun 1st Jun 12pm PDT by

ryanj

: Market suspended as deliberations on settlement occur

Unsuspended Mon 2nd Jun 2:49pm PDT by

ryanj

Voided Thu 19th Jun 9:10am PDT by

ryanj

: show details

No option for other, which could cause the market to be voided if neither McCain nor Obama won the presidency

read less

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

Predictions (84)

84 predictions

17 weeks ago

ozarkguy predicted McCain (H$20 at 26%)

18 weeks ago

jfigg01 predicted Obama (H$100 at 74%)

18 weeks ago

dragon01 predicted Obama (H$20 at 74%)

18 weeks ago

ozarkguy predicted McCain (H$21 at 26%)

19 weeks ago

ozarkguy predicted McCain (H$20 at 29%)

Comments (3)

randburg

I presume the question is: who will WIN the presidency? Thanks.

posted 31 weeks ago

lesley [Admin]

Edited to read "win"!

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

posted 31 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

What an interesting reason to void the market. Should we not have waited and voided this market if, in the incredibly unlikely event, neither one wins. I can not find any reference material on a presidential election in which one of the two major opponents didn't win. For this question to be asked with an "other" option we would had to start the other at 1%, and based on it never happening before 1% is ridiculously too high. 1% means that it will occur once every 100 times. If we use this standard for voiding questions then doesn't every single sports question need to written now to include an "other" option?

posted 16 weeks ago

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