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If Obama loses the Super Tuesday delegate race will he dropout of the 08 race?

Voided

As Obama has lost Nevada and is now expecting a harder then anticipated race in South Carolina, for the moment he is at his weakest moment. If he looses on Super Tuesday by a large margin his ability to win the campaign would be gone.


Settlement details: If Obama loses on Super Tuesday and announces in the following week that he is dropping out of the race, it is counted as a yes, if not a no. Also, a Obama win will result in a "no" settlement

 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

Yes
20%
No
80%
Voided Tue 29th Jan 2008 9:36am PST

Suspend date: Wed 6th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 21st Jan 2008 4:35pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Voided Tue 29th Jan 2008 9:36am PST

Suspend date: Wed 6th Feb 2008 11:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (328)

328 predictions

49 weeks ago
srkasm predicted No (H$100 at 83%)
49 weeks ago
rcoalman predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
49 weeks ago
newsgeek predicted No (H$50 at 92%)
49 weeks ago
dogface predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
49 weeks ago
jarrod predicted No (H$20 at 92%)
more

Comments (4)

With Oprah behind him, I doubt he'll drop.
posted 49 weeks ago
  2 aristo
How is this question settled if Obama wins the delegate race?
posted 49 weeks ago
  3 flealick
I bid under the presumption that an Obama win would result in a "no" settlement. Of course, if he wins, then says, you know, if I lost, I was planning on dropping out, that might complicate things...
posted 49 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
flea your right on with what you said. A Obama win will result in a "no" settlement. I have now added this to the settlement details.
posted 49 weeks ago

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