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If Roger Clemens is convicted in connection with the baseball steroids scandal, will he be pardoned by President Bush?

Voided

Likelihoods not accurate enough


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. In the event that he is not convicted, the question will be voided

 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

Yes
80%
No
20%
Voided Thu 14th Feb 2008 4:11pm PST

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 80%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th Feb 2008 2:14pm PST by ladylara
Edited Thu 14th Feb 2008 3:01pm PST by chris[Admin]
Voided Thu 14th Feb 2008 4:11pm PST by donal: Likelihoods not accurate enough

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (3)

3 predictions

47 weeks ago
galahaut predicted No (H$100 at 20%)
47 weeks ago
henrichin predicted Yes (H$50 at 80%)
47 weeks ago
ozarkguy predicted No (H$20 at 20%)

Comments (1)

  1 donal
We should have a question on this but this particular question isn't structured very well and the liklihoods are not accurate enough

- the probability of both these events happening (a conviction and then a pardon) is a lot less than 80%
- Bush could issue a pre-emtive pardon (I'm not sure about this), meaning this question would have to be settled as No due to the absence of a conviction
- Clemens could be convicted and then pardoned by a President McCain/Clinton/Obama

A straight out Will Roger Clemens be pardoned by President Bush or Will Roger Clemens receive a Presidential Pardon; and relating these questions to the drugs investigation and the possibility that Clemens committed perjury would be a better question
posted 47 weeks ago

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