In the 08 Presidential Election how will a loss or win in Pennsylvania affect the Democrats?

IMHO, this question implies a mis-use of statistics. If the President drives a Ford and I drive a Ford: my chances of becoming President are no better than if I drive another kind of car.

Pennsylvania is a large state and is significant because of the number of delegates that it carries. In fact, all of the large states are significant for that reason. BUT I have never heard of Pennsylvania being regarded as significant as an indication of "who wins a presidential election". In particular, Ohio, Florida, and South Carolina have all been noted as key indicators in recent history...but NOT Pennsylvania.

My statistics professor constantly reminded us that statistics could be BENT to support any idea, and that it was up to us to chart TRUE STATISTICS...Somehow, I can see Dr. Winkler frowning....

OK, Let's try this again: I don't think that whether or not the Democratic Party wins PENNSYLVANIA is going to (by itself) substantially affect whether or not the Democratic Party wins the election. That is the question the author is asking, but curiously the four choices offered all conclusively presume that Pennsylvania is somehow key to the election results. And this is just my personal opinion. Except for maybe exit interviews, no major news source is going to report on a collection of personal opinions.

And if we are supposed to take the 2000 and 2004 results as statistically significant, then the political party that DOES NOT win Pennsylvania could be indicated as the probable winner. I don't see any of these choices listed above, and there is no "other" category.

Unless I am missing the boat somewhere I don't see how a loss or win in Pennsylvania (large state) is going to play any different role in this election other than the loss or win of another large state with the same number of delegates.

If this question is to remain, could we please have some history or links as to why Pennsylvania could be different and significant in this election? Hopefully we can all gain from this additional knowledge. Thanks.

Thoughts:
1) Yes, statistics get mis-used a lot on this site and many other places in the world. On the other hand, they're measureable and easy to settle. So maybe we're not saying that there is a direct correlation between the color of PA and the next president, but it is at least a factor and something thats easily determined. (Note similar statistics arguments regarding polling questions.. causality is pretty hard to determine, but at least we can track correlation)

2) There are 50 states which get to vote, but demographically its pretty clear how the vast majority of them will vote. I've been keeping track on this site:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
which tracks which states as strongly, likely and maybe democratic/republican and then the ones that are too close to call. Up until a week ago, PA was one of the 5 states considered too close to call. It also has more electoral votes than any of the other toss up states. Given this fact, I think this is a very reasonable question.

3) Hillary has talked a lot about how a democrat "has" to win PA to win the white house. She has also been making the claim that since she won the primary, clearly, Barack could not win it in November (I say this with some sarcasm). Her claims alone, I think would make it a viable question.

Thank you jenniandboys for very useful thoughts. Thought-provoking and helpful, as always!

I received the following unedited reply to my flag, which might provide some additional assistance. There is nothing personal in the flag or the reply, and I am sure that Ryan will not mind my sharing it with this discussion:

"Hi Randburg,


The market is solely asking if the Dem's win Pa. will they win the election etc... I can see how the structure of the market question makes it sound subjective, kind of. But in general all the market is asking is what will happen regarding the Pa. primary and the outcome of the election. Now the market does to an extent make Pa. into a key state (kind of).

But this really depends on a users viewpoint. The market question is the same whether or not Pa. is a key state. If we make a similar Ohio market some people will say there is no need for the market because they don't think it's a key state when to others it isn't, but again in the end it doesn't really matter whether the state in question is a key one or not.

In regards to the posting of some background explaining why Pa. is a key state, isn't really necessary when it doesn't matter if the state is key or not.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor"