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In which of these states will a hurricane make landfall first (storm eye)?

Settled as TEXAS


Settlement details: As reported by the wheather channel.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

FLORIDA
6%
SOUTH CAROLINA
3%
NEW JERSEY
0%
TEXAS
90%
Activity: H$49,036
Settled as TEXAS on Wed 23rd Jul 2008 3:08pm PDT

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Wed 23rd Jul 2008 3:08pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 23rd Jul 2008 10:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: FLORIDA: 50%, SOUTH CAROLINA: 20%, NEW JERSEY: 10%, TEXAS: 20%

Action history:

Created Tue 12th Feb 2008 8:32pm PST by hdbikerman883
Edited Fri 15th Feb 2008 9:11am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Clarified Fri 15th Feb 2008 1:41pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: If a hurricanne makes landfall in a state not listed this question remains open
Edited Fri 29th Feb 2008 1:51pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Settlement requested Wed 23rd Jul 2008 2:52pm PDT by rbrog77: Should be settled as texas

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurricanecentral/2008/dolly.html?from=hp_news
Suspended Wed 23rd Jul 2008 2:53pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: checking settlement details
Settled as 'TEXAS' Wed 23rd Jul 2008 3:08pm PDT by tisha[Admin]

Suspend date: None Settlement date: Wed 23rd Jul 2008 3:08pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 23rd Jul 2008 10:30am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (151)

151 predictions

24 weeks ago
paulcroft predicted TEXAS (H$120 at 90%)
24 weeks ago
l_one predicted TEXAS (H$50 at 90%)
24 weeks ago
youbet predicted TEXAS (H$500 at 89%)
24 weeks ago
bobdevine predicted TEXAS (H$1,677 at 89%)
24 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted TEXAS (H$901 at 79%)
more

Comments (20)

  1 bcguelph
WITCH - nice spelling!!
posted 47 weeks ago
there are at least four other coastal states thare are neglected on this list. i.e. louisiana, mississippi, alabama, north carolina, virginia, maryland, new york
posted 47 weeks ago
Flagged. There are several US states on the east coast missing, not to mention states in other countries in the Caribbean and Mexico. Not to mention that there is no, "Other" choice.
posted 47 weeks ago
to answer question #3
Yes you are right any state along the coast could be added
as the question states which state listed will get hit by the eye first
you have no other choices but the ones listed
posted 46 weeks ago
to answer question #2
The question is what state florida, texas, south carolina or new jersey will get hit first not where will the first one hit.
stick to the question dont try to add to it
posted 46 weeks ago
  6 smidge76
Only problem is, the question does not state "which state listed" it says "which state will be hit first." The question should read "which of these states" or "which of the following states" if that was your intetion. Also, there is still a problem if none of those is hit at all during this season. Either way that the question is interpreted, there is a possibility that there might be no winning outcome.
posted 45 weeks ago
  7 lesley[Admin]
I've edited the question title to include "these states". Also, see clarification under settlement details: "If a hurricanne makes landfall in a state not listed this question remains open".
posted 44 weeks ago
meh ... the original question specifically asks about the storm eye.
In which of these states will a hurricane make landfall first (storm eye)?

Then the author of the question reiterates in Comment #3, "the question states which state listed will get hit by the eye first".

I don't understand how the Settlement then is determined by "If a hurricanne makes landfall in a state not listed this question remains open".

In my view, there's a world of difference between "official hurricane-force winds" striking land, and the "eye" of a hurricane striking land.

Maybe others don't read it that way.
posted 44 weeks ago
  9 lesley[Admin]
Thanks for pointing that out truthwrangler. So it should read "If a hurricane eye strikes land in a state not listed in this question, this question remains open". (We don't get too many hurricanes in Scotland, so not too up on them. Sorry!)
posted 44 weeks ago
  10 cognos[Power User]
we may be getting close ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/07/19/tropical.weather/index.html
posted 24 weeks ago
  11 cognos[Power User]
a hurricane 'watch' has been issued for the southern Texas coastline. This does NOT mean a hurricane is emminent. It simply means that folks in that area need to stay tuned to the news.
posted 24 weeks ago
  12 cognos[Power User]
info on TS Dolly at ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25783373/
posted 24 weeks ago
  13 destry[Admin]
Be interesting to see how this storm developes, will it be hurricane at landfall, will landfall occur in Texas, so many great things.
posted 24 weeks ago
  14 cognos[Power User]
I 'think' it will be a cat 1 on landfall. there is a high pressure system keeping it to the south at this time. If that high pressure system moves north or east, it would allow Dolly to move northward.

'great things?' - not for those along the coast, or the 1,200 Texas Guard troops called up for possible emergency service.

we - the 'cognos' family will be throwing a hurricane party for those who are interested. With or without a hurricane, they are forecasting a lot of rain and wind for the greater Houston/Galveston area. Any takers?

posted 24 weeks ago
  15 destry[Admin]
I am sorry about the great things comment. I meant as far as moving this market. As someone who lived through a direct strike of a Category 4 hurricane I can sympathize with anyone.
Please accept my apology for not being more careful with my words.
posted 24 weeks ago
  16 cognos[Power User]
@destry

not at all. no apology necessary. you know more than most that a Cat 1 is nothing more than a 'severe' thunderstorm (with lots of wind), compared to a 3 or higher. Texas has lots of flatlands and bayous, somewhat like Florida, and even a Cat 1 CAN push the gulf way past the shoreline, and will usually flood someone.

If it does hit Texas as a Cat 1, then this market is over, and I have NO money on that option, so that wouldn't be so great. I wish I didn't put so much $H on SC.

;)

Will someone create another market for the 'next' Hurricane? I hope so.
posted 24 weeks ago
  17 curios
here is a better guide
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/023225.shtml?3day#contents
but then iam only a dill from down under
posted 24 weeks ago
  18 cognos[Power User]
TS Dolly has been upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane.
Now, if the eye of this storm makes landfall on the Mexico side of the border, we will have to wait for some future storm, if I read this market correctly.

posted 24 weeks ago
  19 bayoubear[Admin]
Of course an 'eye' can be several miles across...as long as it is reported that at least part of the eye came upon land in Texas, it should be settled as a yes for the Lone Star state...four of the five computer models I'm looking at ( http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200804_model.html#a_topad ) show it coming in either at the border itself or slightly north of it.

This is going to be a close one...hopefully not much damage, Texas really needs the rain, but not the flooding.
posted 24 weeks ago
  20 bayoubear[Admin]
Now it looks like it'll be a cat 2 just before it hits land...may back off to cat 1 by the time the eye gets there, land tends to weaken a storm...latest looks I had tend to bring the eye just barely across the Texas border...we'll know in a little while

Batten dem hatches!
posted 24 weeks ago

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