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In which year will the next UK General Election be held ?

Current forecast: 2009 (47% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is 2009 with a probability of 47% (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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2008
10%
2009
47%
2010
43%
Activity: H$8,859
Question suspends in 2 years

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 9:59pm PST (2 years to go)

Initial likelihoods: 2008: 30%, 2009: 40%, 2010: 30%

Action history:

Created Sun 9th Mar 7:33am PDT by cakie174
Edited Sun 9th Mar 8:01am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Sun 9th Mar 3:05pm PDT by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Fri 31st Dec 2010 9:59pm PST (2 years to go)
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Predictions (72)

72 predictions

1 day ago
speranza predicted 2010 (H$50 at 45%)
1 day ago
robert1 predicted 2010 (H$100 at 43%)
1 day ago
hels predicted 2009 (H$50 at 48%)
6 days ago
soldier_w predicted 2009 (H$35 at 47%)
6 days ago
woohooitssue predicted 2009 (H$50 at 46%)
more

Comments (1)

  1 lesley[Admin]
This will be settled when a date for the next election is ANNOUNCED by the BBC, we will not wait until the election itself to take place.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 35 weeks ago

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