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MLB - How many regular season wins will the Chicago Cubs finish the 2008 season with?

Settled as more than 89

They've reached 90

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

more than 89
99%
85-89
1%
80-84
0%
75-79
0%
70-74
0%
less than 70
0%
Activity: H$19,002
Settled as more than 89 on Tue 16th Sep 2008 7:40am PDT

Suspend date: Mon 15th Sep 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 16th Sep 2008 7:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 15th Sep 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: more than 89: 5%, 85-89: 10%, 80-84: 35%, 75-79: 35%, 70-74: 10%, less than 70: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 4th Apr 2008 8:22pm PDT by markov
Edited Sun 6th Apr 2008 12:16am PDT by donal
Suspended Mon 15th Sep 2008 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 15th Sep 2008 8:36pm PDT by markov: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp
Settled as 'more than 89' Tue 16th Sep 2008 7:40am PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: They've reached 90

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/index.jsp

Suspend date: Mon 15th Sep 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Tue 16th Sep 2008 7:40am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 15th Sep 2008 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (67)

67 predictions

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Comments (2)

  1 bcguelph
initial likelihoods are too accurate - no way I'm betting until hubdubers start messing with the probabilities!!

Nicely done MARKOV!
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 markov
Thanks bcguelph. I've had that problem before and considered using probabilities slightly different than what I personally believe to be accurate just to make the market a little more attractive (not for personal gain). The reason I haven't is that if I did I'd feel I was gaming to some degree. Like you, I stay away from probabilities I deem to be accurate as there is no money to be made. If we wait awhile on this one maybe all the White Sox fans will put their money where their mouth's are and jack up the numbers for the 'less than 70' wins outcome. That's when I'll swoop in. Oops,,,,blew my cover.
posted 39 weeks ago

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