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MLB - How many regular season wins will the Chicago Cubs finish the 2008 season with?

Current forecast: more than 89 (98% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is more than 89 with a probability of 98% (unchanged in last 1 day)

 
Forecast history, %
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more than 89
98%
85-89
1%
80-84
0%
75-79
0%
70-74
0%
less than 70
0%
Activity: H$18,998
Question suspends in 2 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Mon 15th Sep 12:59am PDT (2 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: more than 89: 5%, 85-89: 10%, 80-84: 35%, 75-79: 35%, 70-74: 10%, less than 70: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 4th Apr 8:22pm PDT by markov
Edited Sun 6th Apr 12:16am PDT by donal[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (67)

67 predictions

No public predictions yet

Comments (2)

  1 bcguelph
initial likelihoods are too accurate - no way I'm betting until hubdubers start messing with the probabilities!!

Nicely done MARKOV!
posted 20 weeks ago
  2 markov
Thanks bcguelph. I've had that problem before and considered using probabilities slightly different than what I personally believe to be accurate just to make the market a little more attractive (not for personal gain). The reason I haven't is that if I did I'd feel I was gaming to some degree. Like you, I stay away from probabilities I deem to be accurate as there is no money to be made. If we wait awhile on this one maybe all the White Sox fans will put their money where their mouth's are and jack up the numbers for the 'less than 70' wins outcome. That's when I'll swoop in. Oops,,,,blew my cover.
posted 20 weeks ago

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