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MLB - Who will win the American League East in 2008?

Settled as Rays

the Rays were crowned division champs early Saturday morning after the Yankees defeated the Red Sox with a lopsided win at Fenway Park

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080926&content_id=3553995&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Background:

Someone who knows more about the other Divisions needs to set them up. I can only set the initial ratios for the AL East race.

Someone should also set-up a similar question for both the AL and NL wildcard races, but those require greater than 10 possible outcomes.


Settlement details: As reported by a Major League baseball.

If an AL East team also gets the wild card, it is the Division winner who wins this question - it isn't a tie.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Red Sox
24%
Orioles
0%
Yankees
1%
Rays
75%
Blue Jays
0%
Activity: H$52,814
Settled as Rays on Sat 27th Sep 6:19am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 23rd Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 6:19am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Red Sox: 45%, Orioles: 10%, Yankees: 30%, Rays: 5%, Blue Jays: 10%

Action history:

Created Thu 27th Mar 9:39am PDT by bcguelph
Suspended Tue 23rd Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 23rd Sep 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Wed 24th Sep 7:57pm PDT by bcguelph: Tampa Bay has clinched the AL East - settle as TB Devil Rays.
Settled as 'Rays' Wed 24th Sep 8:02pm PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: Rays are in!

www.mlb.com
Previous action withdrawn Thu 25th Sep 6:27am PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: Market was settled early - according to MLB, it looks like this should settle after "A Tampa Bay win or Boston loss will make the Rays the AL East champions."

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080924&content_id=3540902&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Settlement requested Fri 26th Sep 7:33am PDT by bcguelph: Devil Rays have clinched the AL East. Please settle.
Settled as 'Rays' Sat 27th Sep 6:19am PDT by mrperfkt[Admin]: the Rays were crowned division champs early Saturday morning after the Yankees defeated the Red Sox with a lopsided win at Fenway Park

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20080926&content_id=3553995&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

Suspend date: Tue 23rd Sep 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sat 27th Sep 6:19am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 23rd Sep 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (110)

110 predictions

10 weeks ago
ksavai predicted Rays (H$50 at 75%)
10 weeks ago
leeangelo predicted Rays (H$50 at 74%)
10 weeks ago
jakethesnake predicted Rays (H$1,000 at 64%)
10 weeks ago
corbelle predicted Rays (H$100 at 63%)
10 weeks ago
jakethesnake predicted Rays (H$1,000 at 53%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 kennyk
??? I'm confused. The Rays are up by 3 games, but there are 4 games left in the season. The dreaded BoSox could still sneak in and steal this by my reckoning..
posted 9 weeks ago
  2 mrperfkt[Admin]
@Kennyk - Sorry. Looks like it settled early. You are correct. According to MLB.com, as of Thursday "A Tampa Bay win or Boston loss will make the Rays the AL East champions."

I've unsettled the market. However, the suspend date was reached so it will remain suspended. If the outcome changes, then it will be settled with the other outcome.
posted 9 weeks ago

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