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What Nazi treasure will be discovered in new dig in Germany?

Current forecast: nothing of any real value (80% chance)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is nothing of any real value with a probability of 80% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Hunt continues for Nazi treasure. German treasure hunters were to begin digging Tuesday for what they claim to be plunder buried by the Nazis in a man-made cavern near the Czech border.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

cultural treasures: such as paintings or amber paneling
4%
gold or silver
6%
both 'gold or silver' AND 'cultural treasures'
9%
nothing of any real value
80%
Activity: H$76,016
Question suspends in 9 weeks

Suspend date: Sun 15th Mar 11:59pm PDT (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: cultural treasures: such as paintings or amber paneling: 20%, gold or silver: 20%, both 'gold or silver' AND 'cultural treasures': 10%, nothing of any real value: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 26th Feb 2008 9:40am PST by heyy_joe
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 12:32pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Edited Sun 9th Mar 2008 7:51am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Tue 18th Mar 2008 4:06pm PDT by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 15th Mar 11:59pm PDT (9 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (248)

248 predictions

3 days ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted nothing of any real value (H$1,000 at 77%)
3 days ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted nothing of any real value (H$1,000 at 66%)
3 days ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted nothing of any real value (H$1,000 at 49%)
3 days ago
aktrc predicted both 'gold or silver' AND 'cultural treasures' (H$20 at 27%)
3 days ago
claudiaz predicted nothing of any real value (H$20 at 40%)
more

Comments (16)

  1 heyy_joe
Since this hunt has been stopped until later, maybe late march, I would like to have the suspend date changed to an open date. The suspend date of 3-15-08 was only specified in the question creation because I assumed that would have been plenty of time for an answer, I did not put the date into the question itself as a definitive settlement date. No reason now to suspend it on the 15th now....might as well let people continue to wager.
posted 43 weeks ago
  2 lesley[Admin]
Hi Hevy-joe -I've set the suspend date to 2009 - that should give them plenty of time to finish the dig.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 43 weeks ago
  3 heyy_joe
Thanks!
posted 43 weeks ago
  4 jarrod
Weak. I purposely placed a wager based on the original suspend date. A new question should have been created.
posted 43 weeks ago
  5 heyy_joe
The suspend date was exactly that...a suspend date.....NOT a settlement date. The question would not have been settled by that date. All the suspend date would have done was suspend further wagering. You should not be placing wagers with the belief that a suspend date is a settlement date to begin with.
posted 43 weeks ago
  6 jarrod
What I'm saying is that half the fun is in being locked in, like a horse race.
posted 43 weeks ago
  7 heyy_joe
Well, as I said before, the settlement date was never specified in either the question or settlement details. The only reason I put a suspend date was because I assumed that the question would have already been answered by then....NOT with the intent to "lock" anyone in. Since it won't be answered by then I see no reason to stop others from wagering until it is. I am sorry you wagered based on a suspend date and not a settlement date which would have "locked" you in.
posted 43 weeks ago
  8 lesley[Admin]
I've edited the title of this question to make more sense given the possible outcomes. It has not changed the meaning of anything. (Original question: Will Nazi treasure be discovered in new dig in Germany?)

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 42 weeks ago
  9 pics4d
KJFALKFGRR BITE SMASH IOEFIO.....:)
posted 42 weeks ago
  10 lesley[Admin]
Erm, what, pics4d>?
posted 42 weeks ago
  11 pics4d
oh nothing...i was just trying to make a funny
posted 42 weeks ago
  12 shadowfax
and here I thought pics you were onto some new acronym
posted 41 weeks ago
  14 pics4d
they have not resumed searching...the link above is from 2-25...on 2-28, they had an argument and the mayor of the town quit paying for the dig
posted 41 weeks ago
  15 gustavtobi
i do not think they will resuming. Maybe I could get my money back so I can make a prediction. For month I have been blocked cause of this nazi treasure. Cannot wait anymore...
posted 19 weeks ago
This is the last story I can find on this: http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.net-tribune.de%2Farticle%2F210308-28.php&hl=en&ie=UTF8&sl=de&tl=en
In German: http://www.net-tribune.de/article/210308-28.php
It's from late March, and claims they are continuing now that Hauser is back from Berlin. There is nothing after that to be found.
posted 19 weeks ago

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