Created Sat 16th Feb 2008 3:32am PST by oppugner

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What action will be taken by NASA due to damage to the thermal protection system incurred during the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour? (STS-123)

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=27340

"The shuttle's mission management team met earlier Friday and cleared Endeavour's thermal protection system for re-entry, scheduled for Wednesday, March 26. As a result of having a clean heat shield, focused inspection is not required."

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

The orbiter does not have to land safely for an option to be paid out. For example, if there is some damage, no action taken (option b in other words) but the orbiter breaks up during re-entry then b will still be the settled answer.
For options d and e, the crew can be returned to Earth in any vehicle(s) (from any country) except for Endeavour.

What action will be taken by NASA due to damage to the thermal protection system incurred during the launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour? (STS-123)

    No action - No damage was sustained.

    No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary.

    Some damage sustained but repaired by crew in one or more EVA's

    Damage unrepairable by astronauts - crew remains on Endeavour until another vehicle(s) arrives to take them home. (no transfer to ISS)

    Damage unrepairable by astronauts - crew transfers to the ISS until they can get back in another vehicle(s)

    Something else

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Forecast history, %

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Settled

	No action - No damage was sustained.	34%
	No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary.	60%
	Some damage sustained but repaired by crew in one or more EVA's	5%
	Damage unrepairable by astronauts - crew remains on Endeavour until another vehicle(s) arrives to take them home. (no transfer to ISS)	0%
	Damage unrepairable by astronauts - crew transfers to the ISS until they can get back in another vehicle(s)	0%
	Something else	0%

Activity: H$24,122

Settled as No action - No damage was sustained. on Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:42am PDT

Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:42am PDT

Initial likelihoods: No action - No damage was sustained.: 40%, No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary.: 34%, Some damage sustained but repaired by crew in one or more EVA's: 23%, Damage unrepairable by astronauts - crew remains on Endeavour until another vehicle(s) arrives to take them home. (no transfer to ISS): 1%, Damage unrepairable by astronauts - crew transfers to the ISS until they can get back in another vehicle(s): 1%, Something else: 1%

Action history:

Created Sat 16th Feb 2008 3:32am PST by oppugner

Edited Tue 26th Feb 2008 1:33pm PST by lesley

Edited Mon 3rd Mar 2008 8:16am PST by nigeleccles

Settlement requested Wed 12th Mar 2008 8:07am PDT by neverlupus: Astronauts have checked the thermal shield, and CNN has reported "Cameras captured a possible strike to Endeavour's nose 10 seconds after liftoff, but Moses said he wasn't worried because the ship wasn't traveling fast enough at that time to sustain serious damage." The implication being that Endeavour did sustain damage, but not enough to warrant repairs.

Settlement requested Sat 15th Mar 2008 7:39pm PDT by theonecalledmichael: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/space/03/15/space.shuttle.ap/index.html

Shuttle cleared for return as scheduled

Suspended Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:33am PDT by tisha

Settled as 'No action - No damage was sustained.' Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:42am PDT by tisha: http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=27340

"The shuttle's mission management team met earlier Friday and cleared Endeavour's thermal protection system for re-entry, scheduled for Wednesday, March 26. As a result of having a clean heat shield, focused inspection is not required."

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Suspend date: Tue 1st Apr 2008 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 16th Mar 2008 2:42am PDT
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Predictions (77)

77 predictions

42 weeks ago

myunion predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$20 at 53%)

43 weeks ago

iocia predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$100 at 51%)

43 weeks ago

myunion predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$20 at 50%)

43 weeks ago

maphry predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$100 at 49%)

43 weeks ago

jpkoester1 predicted No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary. (H$20 at 32%)

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42 weeks ago

myunion predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$20 at 53%)

43 weeks ago

iocia predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$100 at 51%)

43 weeks ago

myunion predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$20 at 50%)

43 weeks ago

maphry predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$100 at 49%)

43 weeks ago

jpkoester1 predicted No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary. (H$20 at 32%)

43 weeks ago

owl1 predicted No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary. (H$50 at 31%)

43 weeks ago

dragon01 predicted No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary. (H$41 at 30%)

43 weeks ago

neverlupus predicted No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary. (H$200 at 26%)

43 weeks ago

neverlupus predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$200 at 52%)

43 weeks ago

raidersin09 predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$20 at 49%)

43 weeks ago

paulcroft predicted No action - Some damage sustained but no repairs deemed necessary. (H$100 at 74%)

43 weeks ago

danhanley predicted No action - No damage was sustained. (H$100 at 34%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (3)

  1 neverlupus

The launch was at 2:38 AM EST 3/11/08, and I have heard no reports of damaged heat shielding.

posted 43 weeks ago

  2 neverlupus

"Cameras captured a possible strike to Endeavour's nose 10 seconds after liftoff, but Moses said he wasn't worried because the ship wasn't traveling fast enough at that time to sustain serious damage."
--CNN

posted 43 weeks ago

  3 meanderingsearcher

A check of the ship's heat shield, using a robot arm equipped with laser and cameras, turned up no obvious damage from Tuesday's launch,
MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23581937/

posted 43 weeks ago

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