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What country will be next to send a probe to the moon?

Settled as other

Indian's Chandrayaan 1 successfully sent to Moon
http://www.isro.org/pressrelease/Nov04_2008.htm

Background:

Lunar landing, China, Russia, helium-3 (see comments for details)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

China
14%
Russia
8%
United States
29%
other
49%
Activity: H$18,341
Settled as other on Mon 3rd Nov 10:59pm PST

Suspend date: Mon 20th Dec 2010 8pm PST (2 years to go) Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 10:59pm PST

Initial likelihoods: China: 20%, Russia: 25%, United States: 50%, other: 5%

Action history:

Created Wed 20th Feb 1:18am PST by jacktheseer
Settlement requested Wed 20th Feb 5:03pm PST by anaverageamerican: Does Wikipedia count? The US obviously got there first, so this question ought to be voided.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing
Edited Wed 20th Feb 5:18pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Clarified Thu 21st Feb 4:30am PST by lesley[Admin]: Edited to change title from "Race to the moon: what country will get their [sic]first".
Edited Tue 26th Feb 1:30pm PST by lesley[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 1:31pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Mon 17th Mar 11:30am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Question suspended pending clarification from creator.
Unsuspended Tue 18th Mar 1:51am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Tue 21st Oct 7:11pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 21st Oct 7:11pm PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: India has launched their orbiter with an impactor. Not sure if that counts.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chandrayaan (market suspended)
Settled as 'other' Mon 3rd Nov 10:59pm PST by tisha[Admin]: Indian's Chandrayaan 1 successfully sent to Moon
http://www.isro.org/pressrelease/Nov04_2008.htm

Suspend date: Mon 20th Dec 2010 8pm PST (2 years to go) Settlement date: Mon 3rd Nov 10:59pm PST
more info...

 

Predictions (68)

68 predictions

4 weeks ago
youbet predicted other (H$250 at 47%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted other (H$50 at 43%)
4 weeks ago
pita_soup predicted other (H$100 at 42%)
4 weeks ago
youbet predicted other (H$500 at 33%)
4 weeks ago
youbet predicted other (H$200 at 24%)
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Comments (13)

I presume this question is about establishing a base on the moon to mine for helium-3.

See Wired (December, 2006)
<http://www.wired.com/science/space/news/2006/12/72276>

The date in the Wired story for this happening by the US is 2024.

Race to the Moon for Nuclear Fuel
John Lasker 12.15.06 | 2:00 AM

"NASA's planned moon base announced last week [2006] could pave the way for deeper space exploration to Mars, but one of the biggest beneficiaries may be the terrestrial energy industry.

"Nestled among the agency's 200-point mission goals is a proposal to mine the moon for fuel used in fusion reactors -- futuristic power plants that have been demonstrated in proof-of-concept but are likely decades away from commercial deployment.

"Helium-3 is considered a safe, environmentally friendly fuel candidate for these generators, and while it is scarce on Earth it is plentiful on the moon.

"As a result, scientists have begun to consider the practicality of mining lunar Helium-3 as a replacement for fossil fuels.

"NASA plans to have a permanent moon base by 2024, but America is not the only nation with plans for a moon base. China, India, the European Space Agency, and at least one Russian corporation, Energia, have visions of building manned lunar bases post-2020.

"Mining the moon for helium-3 has been discussed widely in space circles and international space conferences. Both China and Russia have stated their nations' interest in helium-3."
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 oppugner
It's a rather vague question IMO. As it stands the next probe to the moon will settle the question.
posted 39 weeks ago
  3 markov
It should be "Which country will put a human being on the moon next?" I think that's what they were shooting for. The U.S. manned space program has been such joke (due to lack of political will) for the last 30 years it probably will be China. I'd bet on China if I didn't have to wait 15-20 years for the question to settle. I do like the question, though.
posted 39 weeks ago
I put a few H$ on this question and then asked for settlement requesting it be voided. The US was first to the moon in 1969 (I remember being allowed to "stay up late" to watch it. Live in black-and-white grainy 1969 TV 8^). Hubdub needs a power-user question vetting process to ensure that questions like this are rejected, and the question creator knows why, so they can submit a well-formed question that can be settled fairly.
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 lesley[Admin]
We're working on it, anaverageamerican! Not long now.
posted 37 weeks ago
  6 arnos
So is this for any kind of probe or a He-3 Probe?
posted 35 weeks ago
I think that if additional info is not provided, and if the question can be settled without add'l info, then you must take the question literally.

a probe means any probe, no human requirement.

I'm with all of you on what this question should have been, or is not.
posted 35 weeks ago
By probe I mean an actual touch down on the lunar surface, a probe does not have to be human settig foot on surface.
A fly by will not count as a probe touching dwon on the lunar surface.
Sorry for the vague question.
It will be almost a decade for a human to set foot on the surface again.
posted 35 weeks ago
  9 tisha[Admin]
Thanks for clarification jacktheseer. This will be the clarification used to settle.
posted 35 weeks ago
Only US and India have plans to launch lunar impactors this year... why are China and Russia so high??

posted 32 weeks ago
This link is potentially useful: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_future_lunar_missions
posted 7 weeks ago
@jenniandboys: Actually, according to the wikipedia link I provided Russia is scheduled to launch their Luna-Glob lander in 2009, although keeping track of the Russian announcements is sort of confusing... (they've shifted around the year a few times)
posted 7 weeks ago
  13 tisha[Admin]
Chandrayaan has just launched, so this question is suspended. It will be settled when its probe successfully lands on the moon - predicted to be in about 10 days.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1852608,00.html
posted 4 weeks ago

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